0:01:00 @NachoTrust is living the vagabond life, prepping to come to Canada, and travel through Europe.
00:4:30 No-Cent Terry.
00:07:30 @UnruhTynan joins the stage and begins an oil-field services discussion with Nacho.
00:11:30 Is the alpha now in OFS?! Nacho: “The value snap is in services.”
Nacho makes reference to $CWC and $STEP.
00:16:00 The torque is coming in services. Are you waiting for $TOU to go to $200 a share? @timber001 pushes back: “We’re not in the second inning.” Joe then chucks out his immortal beloved: $MEG!
Nacho discusses CES Energy Solutions ($CEU/$CESDF).
00:23:00 “The Value Snap.”
00:29:30 What was happening to $BTE 12-18 months ago is happening now. Because of Murray, Nacho is in $ESI. More discussion of CWC.
00:32:30 @jleqc wants to be ahead of the market. A concern with the services space.
00:41:30 Not naming names, but WTF: $ARX hedging. @UnruhTynan discusses how $ARX hedging traditionally has been a strength — it’s alive today because of its hedges.
00:47:30 @UndervaluedOnG hedging NG in current situation understandable. Oil? No way. $GXE is not hedging more than 25% going forward.
@BJamz2022 starts conversation on $CVE’s approach (buying back its hedges) vs. $ARX.
$PEY another survivor because of hedging. Nacho thinks even if ARX had never bought 7GENs it would be $35-$40 if not for the Blueberry First Nations issue.
00:55:00 Tynan didn’t like $CVE buying out its hedges.
$ARX set up well to enter later this year? $ARX and $MEG set up magnificently for 2023.
1:01:00 @thebiglong9 joins. Hedging as dollar-cost-averaging and potential windfall profits taxes in the UK. Mark brings up Crude Volatility and Bob McNally.
1:08:00 @HectOracle is infuriated by the hedging. Hector will be VP of sales. He says he’ll be expensive, but #COM will negotiate a discount!
@EnergyInvest0r opines that $ARX’s buybacks will vindicate them.
1:13:30 @David96678833 is concerned there is insufficient piping for NG between U.S. and Canada. Larger companies at an advantage.
1:16:00 Peace and love (regardless of hedging), and if you’re not in OFS, you’re missing out. Nacho might break down and buy some $MEG.
@AhmedBa44329064 asks about $ARX’s Attachie CAPEX.
1:27:00 @sohaibab9 discusses extremely high OFS wages. Nacho draws parallels with NG companies that have come through hard times.
1:38:00 Part II: Right number of OFS holdings?
1:43:00 @thebiglong9 returns to recommend Capital Returns by Edward Chancellor.
1:59:00 If you had $100K and no #COM holdings, what would you buy? @WhiteTundraSG it is time to buy. $OBE, $TVE. Shubham lauds @JamesHMackay’s brief bullish macro discussion.
2:04:00 @timber001 is a fundamentalist permabull.
2:07:30 *** @MiserMcMiserson takes the stage and discusses Venezuelan barrels, and where Russia fits in. ***
@Zeal1203 discusses bear case, LNG Canada.
2:17:00 @jleqc muses on the trade, and discusses survival techniques re: mosquitos and no-see-ums.
2:23:00 @InvestInOnG North America will be driving the conversation because it has the resources. @WTIBull presents a bearish case.
2:36:00 @WhiteTundraSG is unconvinced and discusses tailwinds. @jleqc discusses The Long Emergency by Jim Kuntsler, a post-petroleum world would take us to the 18th century. Humanity doesn’t have a choice.
2:43:00 @thejeff85 checks in from the PGA Championship and sees no demand destruction in Tulsa. He sees supply disruptions from non-Gulf OPEC nations. Jeff is locking in his options gains a little early. Deep reiterates a bullish case for North America.
2:48:00 @ManchesterUtd81 didn’t see demand destruction in Dallas, but he did see some COVID. The majority of U.S. refineries were built for WW II. There is no energy independence. EI is a set of policies where we find it here, move it through our pipelines and refine it here. 90s sees policy moving back in this direction.
2:52:30 @joemama48072123 takes the stage.
3:04:00 @ManchesterUtd81 lack of refining capability is a 3-5 year problem. 90s also mentions, in passing, refinery asset sales, and how companies can pay off their purchases quickly.
3:08:30 $VTNR (Vertex Energy) is briefly discussed.
3:14:00 Growth is going to remain in the U.S. Gulf Coast — the areas where the capacity is already in place.
3:16:00 @GasBuddyGuy joins the stage and discusses how the NE is in trouble, China is bringing a facility on-line, and how refining stocks are printing.
4:59:00 @WhiteTundraSG closes out the Space with his current thoughts. A name or two for someone just entering the O+G trade? New folks coming in must have conviction.
High-Energy Tuesday