00:03:00 @jleqc and @jenstilmanydots join us on stage. @jleqc likes Tamarack Valley’s recent acquisition.
Jenny notes a company ($GOCO.CN) that went bonkers after a recent find.
Jenny outlines some interesting details regarding the NCIB process and the regulations involving share counts and companies adding shares.
timelydisclosure.com/2022/07/11/toronto-stock-exchange-staff-notice-on-normal-course-issuer-bids/
Jenny goes through some E&Ps and OFS firms that have added or subtracted shares. Jenny invokes @BubleQe's discussion.
00:14:30 Are companies doing a good job of communicating their buyback progress vs. prior shares outstanding? Jenny recommends using http://CEO.CA
00:18:30 @NinoPlava joins and discusses minority-shareholder rights (dilution).
Nino says most companies follow the rules. He then discusses $AMC -- SEC regulations are similar to Canadian dilution rules.
00:27:30 @jleqc: The concern is companies can play by the rules and still burn shareholders.
Shenanigans can ensue when companies tell stories that are hard to independently verify.
00:33:30 Jenny keeps a list of (good and bad) Twitter accounts and corporate executives. Who is telling the truth?
00:41:00 Jenny thanks @Tsxman. Chris joins to briefly discuss Cathedral, an Oil Field Services company that has a great deal of insider ownership.
00:49:00 @InvestInOnG sets DS straight. Tax rules regarding dividends. ... The pain of $ZIM divvys.
A discussion of the $WCP acquisition announcement vs. $TVE.
00:56:00 @YellowLabLife joins and gives an overview of coal. "Coal is an incredibly complex commodity."
1:02:30 The koala starts the Whitehaven discussion by looking at the company's assets.
Koala does a quick run-through of his dope $WHC model (THANK YOU for helping me figure out how to calc NPAT and FFO to get FCF!).
1:05:30 Why Whitehaven? Where the company is now vs. $CEIX and $BTU.
What is the value of higher FCF if it's going to debt holders? What if FCF is based upon coal prices today?
Koala discusses Vickery -- It's permitted, but Whitehaven WON'T BE PAYING for its development.
1:10:00 The question becomes capital allocation. Koala discusses Australian franking credits, and compares an on-market buyback vs. an off-market buyback.
Koala discusses optimal allocation of all that beautiful FCF.
1:16:00 Is there a world where buybacks would end? How many shares would be removed before they become unviable?
@twebs asks about Whitehaven management. Will the team be acquirers instead of capital returners?
1:21:00 @MC_Mike411 asks about establishing positions in coal, how to start learning about the met and thermal markets. For met? Koala suggests this:
https://www.teck.com/investors/events-&-presentations/presentations-webcasts/steelmaking-coal-resilience
For thermal coal, Koala suggests Whitehaven and Glencore presentations (listen to this section for specifics).
1:26:00 @timber001 asks about $WHC's buyback press release. @YellowLabLife: $WHC will move methodically to prevent "fast money" traders from piling in.
1:32:00 Joe asks about potential complexities regarding taxation for U.S. holders of the stock. ... How many years of reserves does Whitehaven have?
1:36:00 @InvestInOnG asks about royalty rates in Queensland vs. New South Wales. Are $WHC profits in the crosshairs?
1:41:00 Why buy $WHC at its current valuation?
1:45:00 @BshpKing asks about the timing of the first off-market buyback. ... Would Vickery getting funded signal the approach of a coal downturn?
1:49:30 ARA prices linked to TTF. NEWC to JKM? What if the stock rerates, but the commodity drops? Time for $CEIX? Gulp, time for $BTU? Shouldn't we be looking at JKM-TTF, NEWC-JKM?
1:54:00 How much longer will we need coal (met and thermal)?
Koala discusses the use of hydrogen as an alternative and why it is not close to a perfect replacement to met coal. Koala talks about the time to scale nuclear. ... to scale TALENT. We've had a massive divestment from legacy energy.
2:02:00 Is 2050 the right date? 2070?
@mfwarder discusses demand and generation. 2040? If Matt and his co-workers couldn't hug it out, how can non-experts? The experts are now starting to agree. Koala refers to the slide below.
2:11:30 Matt notes that iron is the world's No. 2 traded commodity behind oil. Matt discusses green hydrogen.
2:20:00 @timber001 asks about the top customers for $WHC. Joe refers to @OneMoreif who has said there will be no insurance for Vickery.
2:25:30 @jleqc asks about met coal demand. Matt says availability is limited, which puts a floor on the price. Thermal and gas joined at the hip. Gas is a met input cost.
Matt discussed various coals and their uses during a bravura appearance on the Space above.
2:30:30 Matt discusses Russian coal (which is high calorific value). The markets for Russian products have changed. Matt transitions to discussion of coal types, the users of these coals, and the demand.
2:40:30 Is Newcastle pricing affected by geography?
2:46:00 Revisiting Vickery and insurance. Koala dismisses this as a non-issue. The conversation moves to the lack of science training in our schools -- even our elite schools. There are not enough people who know how the world actually works.
2:58:00 Matt's Dad wanted Matt to study business and history. ... Matt contemplates his personal development and the wisdom of Dads.
3:05:30 Is there another investment idea that inspires the Koala in similar fashion to $WHC?
Koala presents his thesis for U.S. Steel/$X.
3:11:30 Koala discusses his background. "When you're in an industry, and it's that dark, that darkness is your opportunity."
Matt discusses how personal relationships helped drive his growth in the industry.
3:22:00 Related to U.S. Steel, Deep asks about the price spreads between steel around the world. Matt discusses plants closing in Europe. "I think we're here." If you're going to invest in steel, the U.S. is where it's at.
3:28:30 If you're picking one or the other, Koala explains why $X is preferable to $CLF.
"Every degen options trade dude on Twitter is debating" these two names.
Germany lifting of limits on sulfur, allowing imports of Appalachian coal.
High-Energy Tuesday