00:04:00 @jenstilmanydots joins and discusses the case for copper. Her goal? Turn oil maxis into copper maxis!
Jenny says http://CEO.CA and SEDI are critical to evaluate mining stocks. She believes that you shouldn't invest in Canadian miners that don't have large insider holdings.
Jenny identifies several companies that have dodgy histories.
00:08:00 Jenny talks about Andrew, Twitter family, and how special our community is. There's no crying in #COM ! (wipes tears from keyboard).
blog.gorozen.com/blog/the-commodity-bull-market-has-only-just-begun
Four cycles when a portfolio of 25% energy, 25% metals and mining, 25% precious metals and 25% agriculture would have significantly beaten the market.
00:17:00 Miners are "increasing" reserves by lowering the cut-off grade. Recycling copper will not increase supply sufficiently. Discussing China, the ASEAN economies, and copper demand.
Copper is a small input cost for finished goods, like tin, so it is highly unlikely to spur demand destruction.
00:22:30 "Dr. Copper," a better economist than @paulkrugman? Location/political risk? It's everywhere.
00:26:30 NIMBY-ism and the risks in Chile. Mark 04-SEP on your calendar. Jenny says it's about safe allocations, not safe jurisdictions.
00:30:00 A discussion of some companies. Copper Mountain? Jenny used SEDI to spot some insider sales. Jenny identifies some interesting smaller companies and looks at Teck.
00:38:30 @AhmedBa44329064 asks about timing a move into copper.
00:42:30 @InvestInOnG asks about copper stockpiles. Ahmed touches on China's drought -- and related issues.
00:46:30 @TrevBoland comes on stage to discuss Ivanhoe Mines ($IVN/$IVPAF). Trevor and Jenny both own the company.
Ivanhoe has distinct advantages -- an excellent resource, hydro power, huge growth potential and current size. Distinct disadvantage? Jurisdiction risk.
00:55:30 discussing the global nature of pricing, and the risks with Peru and its current leader. Peru and Chile have 38% of the world's copper. Will Australia (world's second-largest supply) bring more online? Peru is a riskier proposition than Chile.
Demographic issues (and the Great Resignation?) might keep Australia from bringing more copper online. Jenny thinks copper is in a position akin to where oil was in 2020, great potential upside ahead.
01:13:00 China's increased demand, plus the "green" transition mean that copper's leveled-off price gives it no place to go but up. Trevor: Like oil, there has been no big capex spends, so increasing supply will take time. Also a huge disconnect between paper/physical market.
@jamesyachyshen what if the EV movement stalls? California is the canary in the coalmine.
01:21:00 @WhiteTundraSG: How can investors perform due diligence on copper names? @jleqc: How can you evaluate management intentions?
Jenny keeps a careful eye on the management teams. She has a half-page of names she trusts, and 12 pages (TWELVE!) of companies she doesn't trust. Atex Resources is run by Pierre Lassonde.
Atacama Copper is another company Jenny likes because of its ties to the Lundin family. Jenny and Trevor might disagree on size of company, but their key initial focus is on management team.
01:33:30 @MiserMcMiserson is hedging an issue in the copper world? It's not as big a factor as in the oil world. Shubham sees domestic EV metals as potentially trading at a premium. Is this correct?
01:41:30 @Nandospage asks about companies raising capital, private placements and warrants.
01:47:30 @rockcreekfreak discusses energy costs involved in mining, and do North American companies have an advantage because of those costs?
Discussion ensues about certain companies that have energy advantages. Jenny gives a little background regarding her career.
1:58:00 Much of what Jenny likes is very high-risk, so she says that she recommends only a 1%-2% allocation. She takes back profits as soon as she can.
Discussion ensues about certain companies that have energy advantages. Jenny gives a little background regarding her career. 1:58:00 Much of what Jenny likes is very high-risk, so she says that she recommends only a 1%-2% allocation. She takes back profits as soon as she can.
Please attend Sohaib's space with @chrisjsankey
2:05:00 the @jleqc journey to the oil thesis had beginnings with Sankey. @rockcreekfreak speaks for #COM in singing the praises of @sohaibab9 and all the work he has done to make our community the best on Twitter.
2:14:00 @IlliniProgrammr discusses LNG/NG macro issues.
2:19:00 @timber001 joins. More non-oil folks are starting to get awareness, but not enough. There's still plenty of runway.
2:33:00 Not being able to go berzerk into $MEG: Torvurleglafwuren?
@HalfbeardCanada joins. What's going on with $TVE? Is the Clearwater asset for sale holding down the price?
2:41:00 @rockcreekfreak is Russian production plummeting?
Perhaps not, but we don't have recent data to refute the thesis.
2:46:00 @jleqc can't sleep and it's #COM's fault. Stop producing excellent (free) Spaces content, so he can rest! The Jleqc On / Jleqc Off ETF (JLO-JLO).
Shubham stops clocks with his comments on $VET's movement over the last 11 months.
https://charts.equityclock.com/vermilion-energy-trust-tsevet-seasonal-chart
@Madonna and @RazorOil take the stage. Is now the time to own $VET with the '22 hedges falling off? @WhiteTundraSG is comfortable with his price targets.
Celebrating $CR becoming a $1B company.
$MEG is an Apple vs. "lucky" $VET?
3:00:00 Why be bullish on $TVE?
3:16:00 $TAL volume up bigly, as was $OBE -- Joe S. thinks OBE US volumes is significant. $OBE ($1B) gets the Madonna treatment.
Obsidian King @KramerKarma1 (Pennus Westius in Latin) takes a victory lap after sleeping in.
Precision Drilling ($1B) also wins best Oscar for best OFS company discussed in the last 20 minutes of the Space -- YOU WILL GET KICKED OFF STAGE IF YOU'RE NOT BULLISH OFS.
3:29:30 @InvestInOnG takes us out discussing what a great day we just experienced, and he's looking forward to Thursday's $WHC results.
High-Energy Tuesday