Lots of technical difficulties:
@jleqc and @MiserMcMiserson weren't able to take the stage. ...
@philoinvestor joins and says oil producers are hedging to clean up their balance sheets.
discusses how liquidity requirements after banking "events" historically have caused spikes downward as risk managers force funds to move out of positions. Is that happening now? Illini thinks so.
00:11:00 The oil market will eventually clear if the price keeps dropping and uneconomic wells are taken offline. ... Illini and Philo discuss the futures market, and how additional barrels could become available.
00:23:00 Philo discusses TTF months ago vs. now. Companies were forced buyers this time last year. "Europe is afraid."
00:29:00 The LyondellBasell refinery in Texas is touched on. ...
@ezloveones asks what happens to oil if interest rates are cut? Will oil go to $100? 00:39:00 @RazorOil and@BrianjBabbage join.
$CVE is touched on. Balancing investor communications -- saying what you're planning, and then delaying shareholder returns. Razor discusses $CVE and $IPCO value on a flowing-barrel basis. $SU, $PIPE, $MEG touched on.
Razor discusses the emotions in this market, and "shake-and-bake," the reality of volatility and how investors react. This is why Razor looks to companies that are fixing balancing sheets.
00:55:00 Razor notes China's brokered deal with Iran and Saudi Arabia, bringing together two countries with huge oil reserves. $COP's Alaska project is mentioned. Willow is expected to bring 180,000 barrels online at $44,444 per flowing barrel.
1:03:30 @FinEconGlobal says the last two weeks have been a gift as he has been adjusting his portfolio. With oil trading in a $75 range, inventories and the post-pandemic situation must get resolved.
1:12:00 @InvestInOnG joins and discusses oil products draws. ... Illini returns and discusses how oil sitting in Cushing is being released by hedge funds to fix balance sheets.
1:23:30 The discussion turns to geopolitics. Iran, Saudi, China, Ukraine, Yemen touched on. ... Biden's reversal on no more drilling and reinvestment ratios. Suppliers are not putting their money back in the ground.
1:35:00 @ArturoVandelayI discusses how Silicon Valley Bank and bond volatility, the $KRE ETF and $XLF. Arthur is still running a 60/40 portfolio, and he is in cash. ... DS -- why would Iran and Saudi make amends?
There is no continuity in U.S. policy. ... The U.S. defense industry is perfectly calibrated for peacetime.
1:45:00 Why Ukraine? Why the pivot to China? Deep says Ukraine is being used as a meat grinder to weaken Russia.
Who gains the most from the Ukraine war? NATO is discussed. "I'll give that a 'C.'" "The unintended winner is China." Is it unintended? Russia is now dependent on China. The West is distracted.
2:00:00 Who is not getting the energy going forward? Abe says Germany/Europe will be the losers. Abe doesn't want to talk about energy access as a "weapon," but perhaps it is @AssetTraveller joins.
China's problems and missteps lead to a rationale for a Taiwan invasion. ... The AUS-UK-US submarine agreement is touched on. A rant against the NATO of today leads to an Abe origin story and his background in international relations.
Abe discusses the problem NATO (and the West) has with Turkey and Erdogan. ... European electric bills skyrocketing as inflation rips. Are banks and real estate affected? Can Europe handle a bank run like SVB?
2:56:00 @mfwarder joins.
3:13:00 Matt: "We always talks about bits and pieces of the supply chain." Deep asks about China coal demand. Matt is kind of sitting tight.
Iron and oil are the largest by volume traded commodities. The intersection between commodities and supply chains isn't discussed enough.
Matt explains why he thinks met pricing will generally be no lower than the $200s. He thinks API2 is likely to be $110 or higher in the future.
3:20:30 The Renaissance Man of COM discusses the Secret of the Universe
. Can you listen to Spaces from six months ago and get something from it? Matt has relistened to a few, and says you can.
3:20:30 The Renaissance Man of COM discusses the Secret of the Universe
. Can you listen to Spaces from six months ago and get something from it? Matt has relistened to a few, and says you can.
3:34:00 Understanding Butte, Saginaw, Brazil, Bavaria. ... Matt has been recording. We talk @davidclowery, The Argument's kick-ass cover of Hello Again, and Matt's impending move to SEC country.
3:44:00 The nature of Twitter celebrity. ... Two Twitter FURUs hold forth. Bean casserole is served, conflatulations and Susan B. Anthony dollars are exchanged.
3:48:00 Are corporate execs paying more attention to our Twitter Spaces? The Retail Investor would welcome an opportunity to hear from companies and interact.
3:50:30 @sohaibab9 joins and begins a discussion of growing our community. Sohaib was instrumental in having @PhilHodgePNE @AlexVergeJOY and other CEOs come talk on Twitter.
Is the next level starting a conference series with companies from #COM, #CoalTwitter, #MinTwit? Co-mingling with lawmakers? U.S. lawmakers certainly could benefit from the knowledge if we had the renewables folks, the fossil folks and grid folks gather to talk.
High-Energy Tuesday