00:04:30 @BugHumbled and @AlexSilvestry begin a discussion on the oil trade as of late. What is the bear thesis? Why is oil dumping?
00:14:30 @TheFreeCashFlow tries to articulate the bear case. @dkSilver123: the bull case is stronger. 00:21:00 @puckdunk the name of the game is "hold on."
00:24:00 @rockcreekfreak joins from Northern Alberta, where he's having Christmas dinner with guys out in the field (minus-37!). Rock will be explaining reserves evaluations in an upcoming Space (next Tuesday?). His DMs are open (mine, too) if you have any questions.
Rock touches on what is in a reserve report.
00:31:30 @AhmedBa44329064 asks about the quality/risks of valuing unexplored acreages (e.g. Clearwater vs. Montney).
@jim_duffus and @phi_ci join. Saskatoon is minus-42 (take that, Rock!). Duff has been moving into more cash, and talks about oil price manipulation.
Ahmed provides some analysis and @Josh_Young_1 joins to provide additional insight on oil price volatility. Is Europe buying Russian oil? Extreme movements are driven by low open interest.
00:52:00 California comes into the crosshairs with Gavin Newsome targeting refinery profits. @AlexSilvestry discusses property taxes in Texas and a scandalous sale of property value/sales data to a tax assessor's office.
1:03:30 @JoeBeattie11 returns from his travels and discusses refining in California. The products produced are so demanding that the refineries are under a lot of stress.
Joe discusses how #COM company netbacks, especially oil-sands companies are seeing stressed prices, with lower than normal netbacks.
1:07:30 @MiserMcMiserson gives a framework to help us better understand California and how the state handles its refineries.
1:11:00 @HalfbeardCanada joins. He thinks it's the best time to buy. @TheFreeCashFlow starts a discussion of tax-loss selling with David and @HectOracle.
@AlexSilvestry @In_Sapiens @MiserMcMiserson and @Steele_MJ discuss wash sales. 1:28:00 @IlliniProgrammr adds color to tax-loss selling from a portfolio manager's perspective.
1:32:00 @timber001 and @IlliniProgrammr discuss the rumors of a large fund getting out of energy stocks. Joe likes WHC the most of all coal companies right now (full disclosure: it is my largest coal holding).
1:39:00 What does Illini think about opportunities right now? If there's a smid-cap that is selling off and doesn't have good liquidity? Tax-less selling should allow you to find deals on companies selling off like crazy.
1:45:30 @In_Sapiens starts a discussion of Parex Resources ($PXT) and its investor day. Notable is their 100% FCF returns (primarily through buybacks), and their projected REDUCTIONS in CAPEX. In some ways, PXT reminds me of $BRY. A company that many poo-poo (or pooh-pooh) on.
In Sapiens talks about things to look in 10Ks to better understand companies and risks involved. The conversation moves back to PXT, people who have touted and untouted the name, and the challenges of being a PM vs. an individual investor.
2:11:00 David discusses GXE and his thesis for being in the company after I said I thought it was overvalued.
2:26:00 @ReserveList adds perspective on Gear. 2:35:00 @therealstufff asks who is actually investing in real oil. Real Stuff discusses $USO with Hector. Joe Beats also notes BNO follows Brent, similar to how $USO follows WTI.
@JoeBeattie11 talks about the forward pricing curve and storage.
High-Energy Tuesday