00:05:00 @Josh_Young_1 joins and mentions a conversation with a Twitter developer who worked on Spaces. The developer told Josh to get an iPhone. As one of America's 133M Android users, my reaction:
.
Josh notes the current U.S. administration appears to be targeting cyclical businesses coming out of an extended down cycle. "It feels kind of third-world countryish."
00:12:00 Market ups and downs, sleeping well, and Jim Cramer's hit rate. Josh talks about small-cap value stocks and early earnings of OFS and some E&Ps.
00:20:30 OFS labor is tight in the U.S. "Prices are changing."
00:24:00 @HalfbeardCanada asks Josh about the rise in natural gas prices.
00:26:00 @IlliniProgrammr discusses how shorts and contract expiry are influencing pricing. "A little bit of a short squeeze"?
00:31:30 @joemama48072123 starts a discussion of Freeport and Cheniere.
@AhmedBa44329064 "The market is pricing in" undersupply to Europe.
00:41:30 Josh discusses the AECO/Henry Hub pricing disconnect. @Acesportsfan1's philosophy of hedging the spring/summer seems prescient. Ahmed discusses Mexican production, which brings us to the U.S. anger at Mexican policy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-22/amlo-risks-long-trade-spat-with-us-by-insisting-on-energy-policy
AMLO's refusal to embrace renewables has raised hackles within the Biden administration. @dkSilver123 discusses helium with Illini. 00:48:00 @AssetTraveller CNQ's in position to conduct M&A.
Tourist says CNQ might have $2B to buy a company. He thinks CNQ's actions might be a precursor to actions by other firms, as buying existing production won't flood the market with supply.
Tourist thinks LNG might be a focus of acquisitions. Who could be in the crosshairs? I rudely speculate (Spartan Delta, Advantage, Kelt). What is the buyout premium?
Kelt's Wembley assets are close to CNQ assets. Tourist channels @BubleQe who has talked about buying certain assets rather than whole companies. CNQ would be a core holding of mine: I'd rather receive shares than cash in a buyout.
00:56:30 Illini discusses how entering a position in a company is much easier and cheaper than trying to buy 51% of the shares. Illini would structure a deal in terms of shares, not cash. Tourist talks about issuing shares then doing a Substantial Issuer Bid.
Why? To ensure investors aren't diluted. We discussed whether this has been done. @EnergyInvest0r DM'd me this morning to say it has been done:
https://www.wcap.ca/investors/news-releases/details/whitecap-resources-inc.-announces-consolidating-acquisitions-and-repurchases-19.2-million-common-shares/239
1:05:00 @lyearwood87 discusses NG pipe issues in the Gulf Coast. Lance doesn't think Cheniere's LNG exports to Europe will be stopped. Josh noted earlier that the market was pricing Cheniere as if exports would be normal after repairs.
Lance says domestic NG storage and demand are issues, and shares his thoughts on the new SPR release announcement.
1:14:30 @ManchesterUtd81 is smoking pork, drinking Shiner and munching on fries.
90s sees "weird numbers." Geopolitics is big, but hurricane season is bigger.
1:27:30 Comparing MEG's turnaround-related production drop to "exploratory shutdowns". Many people don't realize that these refineries use sour crude, which "causes problems."
90s talks about Normally Occurring Radioactive Material. Did you know NORM hangs around in refineries?
90s gives an extended look at refining. Many larger refineries are gone; hurricanes could play havoc; a lot of smaller refineries have massive debt issues that could cause collapse if crack spreads drop; he touches on labor.
Workers are picky and have zero loyalty (and rightfully so). Traveler's original CNQ discussion from earlier.
International Man of Mystery @NachoTrust joins after a long absence.
1:56:00 Despite the company's troubles, Nacho still likes Whitecap. He thinks they did OK with their recent acquisition, but it should be trading at a premium. He reiterates his love for ARX.
Nacho loves themes, and remains bullish (bearishly?) on OFS. He sees service companies increasing margins and likes CEU. That said, he is concered about the larger economy. What is Nacho's timing signal to go all-in?
Nacho loves themes, and remains bullish (bearishly?) on OFS. He sees service companies increasing margins and likes CEU. That said, he is concered about the larger economy. What is Nacho's timing signal to go all-in?
@NachoTrust nothing but respect for you, my friend. You and I disagree about the right entry point (I'm fully 96% invested), but you are man enough to identify when you'll go in, and acknowledge you might be wrong. I appreciate your insight and humility.
2:25:00 Nacho likes the acquisitions made by CWC. There is a bit of a parallel with SDE, and also with real estate.
2:49:30 @RazorOil is tired but motivational. Alex discusses the synergy between OFS and the E&Ps and trading volumes.
Alex expects MEG to have 67K production for Q2 and discusses how MEG is different than conventional producers. Over time, "it's a non-event."
The longest discussion of Imperial Oil in #COM ensues. Possibly 69% of the remaining Space is IMO-focused.
3:13:00 All hail! @SHOPGod2 does his best James Mason from underwater, touting children and #COM stocks, such as Topaz.
#Oil discusses Charlie Munger's biggest regret, not going all in on Belridge Oil. Also, shoutouts to @garquake, @a4_alpha, other #COM luminaries. Also, "Rings off!" a new #COM ode.
High-Energy Tuesday