00:00:00 In praise of the Aussies’ Spaces work ethic.
Options have been a bane for some of us, and the thought is shifting from derivatives to the outright holding of shares.
00:12:30 @mfwarder joins and discusses domestic coal, rail and NG. Matt is looking for coal power-gen usage will be flat to down in the near future.
00:21:00 @KNLCBD'sTweet thread drives a lot of the conversation.
00:30:00 @KNLCBD joins and discusses his short-term outlook for coal/NG in North America. Are we in the danger zone? What about longer term? Without infinite inventory/storage capability, price might drive companies' production.
00:47:00 @Josh_Young_1 asks about the NG pricing curve. Josh and KNL discuss whether companies will shut-in production to temper downward price spikes.
Josh discusses majors' exceptional talent at setting money on fire. Can Texas and Louisiana provide the required amounts feedstock for LNG?
1:06:00 Where do Mexican LNG plans fit into this? @BshpKing pivots the discussion from NA NG to TTF.
Matt discusses why he sees a new higher bottom for coal. Josh sees European gas prices going higher because EU economies will suffer greatly otherwise. @CouldBeMistaken Europe will not get LNG cargoes if JKM continues to be higher than TTF.
1:25:00 @WhiteTundraSG joins and discusses the pricing curve and his expectations for China demand. Matt is excited for "normalcy."
1:39:00 @RazorOil will China reopening change demand in a similar manner to U.S. reopening?
Razor thinks the SPR release is the driving force behind suppressed oil pricing. Shubham says the additional flights added will dramatically increase aviation fuel usage, and spur usage of other fuels. @IlliniProgrammr looks at usage during prior recessions.
2:02:00 @HalfbeardCanada is there enough egress capacity to reduce the WCS differential?
2:08:00 Shubham discusses Venezuelan production. Does Chevron want to put billions into this?
2:15:00 Josh discusses EOG and some issues the company is experiencing.
discusses the SPR, what the DOE can buy back, and what is going to be sold in 2023. OG says that the SPR is basically done buying/selling.
2:29:00 Why is Whitehaven going down so much (8%)? Matt: "Number go up, number go down territory."
OG asks about thermal vs. met.
2:37:30 @energyburrito discusses his bullish views on the SPR.
2:55:00 Matt sees $125 as the new floor for NEWC, not $80. @InvestInOnG asks if coal equities will outperform coal prices. @MiserMcMiserson discusses Gulf Coast refining issues.
3:07:30 @Seawolfcap joins. Porter talks about how coal has been a big winner for his portfolio. He is looking at NG names, and discusses Petrobras and Ecopetrol. Porter and Matt discuss how they are managing stocks that run or plummet.
$BTU has been terrible, but it is at the stage where capital return is looming.
3:24:00 Deep asks about $BTU. Matt says that the communication is much better. Porter says they have gone from dead to success despite doing so many things wrong.
Is a 30%-40% drawdown possible in March? @OneMoreif talks about how Aussie thermal stocks didn't get hit during shoulder season.
3:49:00 There is no supply response. This volatility is how you make money. Learn how to take some pain.
what is the exit point for coal?
4:10:00 @TwinTurboCe1ica says NEWC just needs to stay above $300. Do Aussie or Twin see NEWC going below $300 this summer?
4:23:30 How Japanese nuclear restarts could be a drag.
4:36:00 KNL says if you're trading in a volatile market, remove volatility from your daily life (e.g. spending).
High-Energy Tuesday