00:01:30 @philoinvestor joins to discuss the situation in Europe.
00:04:30 The EU's language sounds like that of a communist party from 40 years ago. The EU is scapegoating for its historic mistakes. Windfall taxes intervene in the natural cycle, and the EU is committing a cardinal sin.
00:07:30 If $VET is looking to acquire additional assets in Europe, interventions will make them cheaper. If the EU adds taxes to domestic NG production, what about international LNG and Coal?
00:14:30 @KNLCBD Takes us back to ancient times -- last winter, discussing China's approach to its energy issues, how markets reacted, and China's response to market forces.
"China moved heaven and earth ... and quite a few bodies" to increase coal production.
The EU is trying to limit profits of domestic industries, but they are not China. They can't shoot CEOs who don't toe the line.
00:21:00 @jleqc Westerners need more pain before reality will be embraced. KNL questions if we are going to have the right leaders in place to make the necessary changes. @jleqc thinks larger forces could spur them.
00:28:00 @datarade thinks inertia is baked in.
Lead times ensure that more pain must occur. Should we be comparing an upcoming energy crisis be compared to the fetanyl crisis in the U.S.? No. "Your car gets repossessed, you're taking the bus.
00:36:00 If I'm freezing, I'm rioting with everyone else.
@Nandospage on the vilification of energy companies. What is happening with Portuguese real estate? It's getting gobbled up by foreign money.
00:41:00 @pijoe1212 is wondering what % of LNG cargoes is available for purchase on the spot market?
KNL notes that much of the market is under contract, but people are profiting by paying a fee to break the contract and selling the LNG to Europe.
00:44:30 @mfwarder: 27% in '17; 32% in '18. Philo: "You can get as much LNG as you want, if you're willing to pay for it."
00:55:00 @AhmedBa44329064 notes many contracts sold are to end-users, but many are purchased and re-sold by traders. Matt digs up the latest data: 57% of LNG cargoes are available at spot.
1:04:00 @jleqc has just gotten into the coal trade. Can China saturate the market?
1:20:00 Welcome @JohnTheFascist ! Wile takes the stage for the first time to provide some perspective on the UK and the issues it faces. Bottom line: Optimism is most likely unwarranted.
1:30:00 Have a thirst for conversation about the etymology of buggery? Slake it here, or skip to the next convo topic.
1:37:00 @philoinvestor is more optimistic about Liz Truss' policy making in the UK. Philo doesn't think the greens will succeed in destroying German industry.
1:47:30 @timber001 asks how Philo has set up his portfolio to prepare for this winter.
1:53:30 @CouldBeMistaken Europe will survive, but what does that look like? MT notes logistical issues that could be horrific.
1:59:00 @BJamz2022 tries to create consensus. Governments will try to cut demand, pain will be experienced, but there won't be a 15% cut.
2:04:00 Pete is aghast at John Kerry trying to lecture Africa on fossil-fuel use. @mfwarder discusses his recent experiences on the continent.
An extended conversation about Africa ensues. A desire to help the continent become an economic power and lift its peoples up should be universal.
2:20:00 @timber001 wants Pete to buy Joe some gins if Pete gets frostbite this winter. 2:
26:00 @JavierGoya7 joins.
Javier explains why he is semi-bullish (partially bearish?).
2:35:30 @puckdunk what has happened was by design. Javier disagrees -- but it appears to be by a matter of degree.
$NHC / New Hope sold NEWC some of its production up to 12 months forward at $405/tonne.
2:51:00 @mfwarder explains the situation that allows NEWC to trade at a premium in Asia to European coal. With October ahead, Matt sees reduced demand.
2:58:00 @RazorOil likes outre', excessive use of soundboard. We like subtle soundboard usage.
Razor discusses Permian production and pivots to why he likes $80 WTI.
The discussion shifts to Russia and the Ukraine.
@jenstilmanydots noted that Teck had an incident that could severely reduce its met coal production for two months.
Matt provides his thoughts on what this means for the coal market. @oilmutt provides his thoughts on Russian escalation.
High-Energy Tuesday