3:15
invokes ARX and
opines. Josh’s piece from 2020 on ARC vs. TOU: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4375484-governance-matters-tourmaline-trouncing-arc-resources 6:20 Reserve reports are paid for by the company. Josh on OPEC and spare capacity.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4375484-governance-matters-tourmaline-trouncing-arc-resources
9:34 Backing up what Josh said, Duff invoked Chris Maurer on the paradigm shift amongst CEOs showing why production won’t roar back.
Volatility in the market and Cardinal (and Jim’s brother) take a hit.
13:55 The @energyburrito – from 100% oil to getting into uranium. - Structural deficit - Spot price lower than cost of production. - Refusal to increase CAPEX.
18:45 Russia/Ukraine represent 40% of enriched uranium globally. What if Russia is locked out of market? Sprott Physical Uranium Trust gobbling up pounds and allowing the market insight to an opaque market.
Sanctions against/by Russia? "The absolute black-swan event of uranium." The supply situation is akin to 10-million barrel oil deficit with no shale. 439 reactors on the planet -- you know exactly how many pounds of demand there is.
22:50 We have never curtailed our use of any energy source ... ever, and nuclear has the biggest return. "One jellybean (of uranium) is about the same as 120 gallons of oil. When squeeze occurs, no incremental pounds will come to market for 4 years.
28:30 The whole sector is $40B. You don't need individual stock risk. URNM SRUUF The uranium markets would make Bitcoin blush. Highly speculative, highly violent, face-ripping.
31:15 @IlliniProgrammr with a bear case for uranium.
34:00
and
are in Sprott. A philosophy I can get behind: Win by copying off the smart kids.
made a 5-10% investment in his portfolio that has grown to 40% of his portfolio. Sprott might be the safest way to play. "Get some skin in the game." 38:30 Is Kazatomprom a risk to the value of URNM?
45:30 Demand is completely inelastic. Similar to the oil play with fewer variables. "I can't see where incremental supply comes from until 2026. ... Price discovery will happen in the next 12 months or I've gotten the thesis wrong."
51:00 @rockcreekfreak does what he does best: Tie the market to the geology and other technical processes behind getting uranium out of the ground. Shout-out to Saskatchewan!
Sprott FAQ, including locations where uranium owned by the trust physically resides.
https://www.sprott.com/investment-strategies/physical-commodity-funds/faqs-sprott-physical-uranium-trust/
A 100,000 pounds gone forever?! Maybe not ... but if Sprott sells the pounds, you're on a beach spending some of your winnings.
1:07:00 @timber001 What if Putin embargoes Russian uranium? The need for energy security. @jim_duffus How about a leader who can preach the gospel of Canada's ability to feed and power the world?! 1:10:30 @IlliniProgrammr Russian enrichment capability risk
1:25:20 Fresh from a shoutout by @ericnuttall, @CornerstoneOil puts down his knife and fork(!) to discuss emotion, fundamentals and Brent going from $138 to $98.
"We're below fair value. ... These panic episodes ... these are opportunities to step in, to buy. ... Venezuela will take years to resurrect. These wells need work."
1:35:50 Juxtaposing electric bills in European countries depending on their power sources. @agnostoxxx talks about some bills 9X-ing.
twebs.substack.com
Special Edition: Macro & Commodity Landscape post Russian Invasion of...
Listen now (153 min) | Featuring the Shrub, Koala, Matt Warder, Wabuffo and many more
, @thejeff85 and @JamesHMackay riff on $VET, the French and @WhiteTundraSG's incredible spreadsheet.
https://www.whitetundra.ca/pricetargets
1:41:25 AAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRC!!!!
Potentially life-changing returns. 34:00 @hkuppy and @trader_ferg are in Sprott. A philosophy I can get behind: Win by copying off the smart kids.
made a 5-10% investment in his portfolio that has grown to 40% of his portfolio. Sprott might be the safest way to play. "Get some skin in the game." 38:30 Is Kazatomprom a risk to the value of URNM?45:30 Demand is completely inelastic. Similar to the oil play with fewer variables. "I can't see where incremental supply comes from until 2026. ... Price discovery will happen in the next 12 months or I've gotten the thesis wrong."
51:00 @rockcreekfreak does what he does best: Tie the market to the geology and other technical processes behind getting uranium out of the ground. Shout-out to Saskatchewan!Mar 16
Sprott FAQ, including locations where uranium owned by the trust physically resides. https://sprott.com/investment-strategies/physical-commodity-funds/faqs-sprott-physical-uranium-trust/
1:07:00 @timber001 What if Putin embargoes Russian uranium? The need for energy security. @jim_duffus How about a leader who can preach the gospel of Canada's ability to feed and power the world?! 1:10:30 @IlliniProgrammr Russian enrichment capability risk
1:25:20 Fresh from a shoutout by @ericnuttall, @CornerstoneOil puts down his knife and fork(!) to discuss emotion, fundamentals and Brent going from $138 to $98.
"We're below fair value. ... These panic episodes ... these are opportunities to step in, to buy. ... Venezuela will take years to resurrect. These wells need work."
1:35:50 Juxtaposing electric bills in European countries depending on their power sources. @agnostoxxx talks about some bills 9X-ing.
twebs.substack.com
Special Edition: Macro & Commodity Landscape post Russian Invasion of...
Listen now (153 min) | Featuring the Shrub, Koala, Matt Warder, Wabuffo and many more
@InvestInOnG, @thejeff85 and @JamesHMackay riff on $VET, the French and @WhiteTundraSG's incredible spreadsheet.
Price Targets — White Tundra Investments
1:41:25 AAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRC!!!!
1:44:30 "Greedy American" @thejeff85 and @JamesHMackay are for buybacks. Golden oldies @nyetjgoldblum and @jim_duffus want to get paid.
1:46:00 @IlliniProgrammr Suggests that #COM $ARX investors attend shareholders' meeting to help shape management decision-making. The problems with small firms that ignore potential shareholders.
1:50:30 Balancing shareholder returns with combo of divys/buybacks. 1:53:00 A number of likeminded investors shaping decisions vs. Larry Fink singlehandedly torpedoing XOM shareholder value. @IlliniProgrammr @jim_duffus @InvestInOnG @thejeff85
1:56:00 A rant against Engine No. 1 and Ayatollah Psak-madinejad, who tries to shame India for buying discount Russian oil, which leads us to
@datarade and @thejeff85 on government-owned oligopolies and NIMBY-ism.
2:07:10 @InvestInOnG and @jimwest232 Advantages of Canadian E&Ps vs. U.S. peers. Dividends help keep companies from doing dumb things with cash flow.
likes the clarity that dividends provide. @thejeff85 $DVN and $PXD do buybacks and dividends (market rewarded $DVN by slicing it 15%). The case for $TELL
mentions $UAN -- @InvestInOnG: "Oh, hohoho!"
2:18:34 "Evangelize your company on Twitter" or be the shitbag CEO of a shitco.
2:23:30 "Companies that take advantage of red-tape regulations."
Red-tape experts include midstream companies. A pipeline in the ground has a moat -- it's a railroad with a bigger dividend.
2:27:20
on the $UAN thesis. Can't be in a tax-advantaged account.
on $ATHR a palladium/platinum replacement for catalytic converters
$OKE, a solid-gold midstream that was an initial Dorian play. But there's too much torque in the E&Ps. Dorian suggests offshore rigs such as $VAL and $RIG
The merits of tin are debated. @datarade thinks it is too obvious. @BarrsDorian thinks that there are few publicly-traded options. He likes $AFM / $AFMJF and $APM / $ANPMF
Dorian is attempting to get the Alphamin CEO on a Twitter Space. 2:44:37 @ReserveList On how @notabigdeal111 identified logistical challenges that $AFM has successfully resolved.
The automotive industry will cut the check for the materials (iron, silver, whatever), no matter what the price is.
Asks about reliable platinum producers. 2:49:30 @MasBest2point0 Kicked the fam out again?! A very risky play suggestion. $WIL / $WLTNF. Libya! Same team that did NG in Algeria.
2:51:20 @WhiteTundraSG discusses his valuation approach. We return to $VET and how to value it. Shubham: $VET has 1P reserves of 9.7 years, which is standard across the board. They're in a much better position.
If winter is cold, governments will pay whatever it takes to keep their people alive. And Ireland requires no royalty. Vermilion has some amazing royalty deals in Europe.
2:59:20 @bethhillskinner asks about cleaner oil-company ideas. Shubham suggests $AXE / $ACWRF, which uses radio waves Superb thread from @SkvarkaPeter with more detail on Acceleware:
Contango? Shubham thinks Russia loses 100,000 bbl/mo.
3:08:30 @sohaibab9 asks @J_BENS about 2025 oil future call options. He doesn't use margin. Dorian discusses call spreads. Service companies: Shubham is waiting for rates to go up.
3:17:30 @thejeff85, @J_BENS and @BarrsDorian on Weatherford, Transocean, $VAL and $RIG. Dorian likes to sell weekly puts on OIH (oil services ETF) to generate an income stream. It's undervalued, and he is comfortable being assigned the shares.
Dorian also sells covered calls on assigned OIH shares. "Develop your own style." -- "Any options I buy or write, I always make sure I'm in a position to take it." @J_BENS recommends @quakes99 as a uranium follow.
3:44:15 @bethhillskinner asks about the safety and efficacy of LNG as a solution for Germany's energy insecurity. @thejeff85 Backlog of LNG tankers (long-term contracts). Must go south (MENA) to get gas. Russians are smart about protecting their monopoly.
Don't do storage in U.S. because of Cleveland LNG explosion in 1940s. Storage should be offshore. 3:48:50 @joemama48072123 asks shoulder season.
4:00:00 Questions about $CVE and $ARX -- but my earbuds doing the robot. @MasBest2point0 asks about weird sell-offs for $RZE, $MEG, $ITE. @joemama48072123 In option-expiry weeks, the tail wags the dog. Good opp to pick something up. Therapy or beer?
4:08 @joemama48072123 and @MasBest2point0 on switching from small caps (CJ) to $RZE with a tiny float. My wife hijacks my wifi as we enter hour 5. ... Prairie Provident and Rok Resources are the cheapest names. We should look at them soon.
and @BubleQe were riffing earlier on ... AAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRC!!!!
Poor messaging from the $ARX team has weakened one of the company's strengths -- its ability to stay buoyant in a down market. Shubham: The buy-back has to be ratcheted up. It could end up lagging more.
Shubham doesn't see their conservative approach changing. $SDE has been doing a much better job of communicating what it is doing, and its condensates are unhedged from July on.
4:14:00 Pleasant surprises from @WhiteTundraSG : Fronterra and Parex Resources. Obsidian did really well, especially compared to Surge -- largely because of hedges. Whitecap screened really well compared to Crescent Point.
When people move off the large caps, they're going to look at the "midcap juice(!)": CPG and WCP. If it's time to exit $ARX, Shubham is unafraid to say he'll go all in on $SDE with that money.
Not interested in Montney plays with huge growth aspirations. 4:17:50 Parex on @ericnuttall's no-fly zone because it can't explain its warchest plans. Has that changed? Look at something with some debt. ...
Why not use leverage. $BTU had to take on onerous interest rates, but the company is minting $ with coal at today's prices. @ReserveList A tip jar for Shubham! Please share @WhiteTundraSG wisdom as much as possible!
4:23:00 IPCO had 41% FCF with assets in Malaysia and France, but why is it trading low? Will the company sanction Black Rod? Why has it taken on debt? What's the story? The catalysts aren't clear, but the FCF is eye-popping.
Shubham: If $JOY and $RZE hadn't been championed by @Josh_Young_1 would they be where they are today? A lot of people are in those names because Josh brought them up.
Getting ready for sleep, and or The Big Sleep, @rockcreekfreak gets the final word ... because ... he's the official freak of #COM.
Despite "tumultuous last two days, firms have committed to buybacks, been under pressure to pay down debt and dividends. Staying flat. What I like about this set-up none of these firms are trying to raise money.
Whitecap got clobbered for trying to do that. In the old days, there'd be a new financing every day. Today, the only ones were tiny firms, PetroShale and Rubellite. Could be a historic setup and we could be in for an amazing run.
High Energy Tuesday Ep. 3