Had to record the file off Twitter using Audacity. What a pain. Please enjoy!
4:00 @jim_duffus is trying to get fund managers involved in #COM Spaces.
5:40 @arrivedshrimp asks about ROK's non-operated interests.
7:00 @jleqc on early-week volatility.
@InvestInOnG and @jleqc More people are actually paying attention to price of equities vs. oil.
@InvestInOnG got a discount on $OBE. $VET dips allowed DS to sneak into some call options, and a tiny Serica position.
12:30 @Josh_Young_1 shares thoughts on last two days.
14:00 Josh's takeaways from meeting with $WCP and $NVA leadership teams.
Josh doesn't own either company, but he walked away feeling better about each. $WCP feels it is very undervalued (and is buying back shares), also clearly explained how/why it financed its acquisitions.
Whitecap outperformed then underperformed. Management thinks it is undervalued.
22:40 I think Josh alludes to $RZE (10-12 bagger). @jleqc on the difficulty of joining the $JOY train. "NOT AN INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION!"
25:30 $NVA is very steadfast in (defending) their Pipestone acquisition. Canadian acquisitions are generally much cheaper than in U.S., but it looked expensive by Canadian standards. But now, returns are "phenomenal."
"They are who they are. They're doing great. And they DON'T CARE."
30:30 @jim_duffus CPG discussion yesterday. "Hedging numbers on the goofy side. ... I wasn't blown away. I wasn't excited."
Did @ericnuttall switch into $SDE? @jleqc Crescent Point bagholders unite behind good numbers, name recognition. Why do they dump their stock?
@HectOracle #COM is too much of an echo chamber. "When the war ends, we're going to drop like a rock. ... Buy the dips, always have some cash."
37:30 @timber001 yes ... but, oil will bounce back by a spring. "I'm a terrible trader. What I'm good at is seeing the macro. Buying the good companies and holding them. ... How long are you going to sit on the sidelines (with dry powder?)."
40:30 @IlliniProgrammr Drawdown will be orderly. We've already had the chaos. @UndervaluedOnG Before the war started, we were at $95 WTI. We continue to draw every week. Fundamentals have never been better. The supply/demand doesn't support a 10%-20% drop.
(wink, wink) Alphamoon or Alphamin?
50:00 @jleqc has no dry powder -- every dip is smaller and smaller. He'll use $ENB as his dry powder. This is what I did with $ENB, $KMI, $AM, $HESM.
Incredibly knowing and true: "Younger guys think the markets are like this all the time. ... It took me a lot of maturity to realize I had to commit (to the #COM trade). If I didn't I'd regret it for the rest of what remains of my life."
53:15 @thejeff85 Expiring options -- how are people handling them? Jeff sold some $OXY calls to make some $. @HectOracle @WhiteTundraSG sold all his $CVE April calls because there was no premium left, and time was running out.
The coward asks: Have you been winning on short-term calls? Losing? @thejeff85 Winning, losing. B.S. Jeff has been winning more than losing.
"Buy the time you can afford." Deep hasn't been seeing good values. "My long-dated stuff, I've done really well." @BarrsDorian Sells short-dated options to make the premium. I'm happy to get assigned.
@JCarney2012 Buys options when stocks drop significantly. Only uses firms that trade on U.S. markets. ... Tries to get 5 at each strike price.
1:08:00 @SGSilkySmoov $VET options much cheaper than similar U.S. market-cap companies. Buy-more signal is next time China tries to crash oil market, and market doesn't respond.
@IlliniProgrammr buys puts on USO and UNG to hedge. ... Buying call options considering the possibility of rising dividend yields.
@BarrsDorian Adds color. @JCarney2012 re: call options -- dividends are rewarding/attracting investors. These are dividend-growth stocks, so both equity price and divvies should grow.
1:18:30 @jleqc We have an edge. We understand the ESG fallacy. We know which way this is going. We are playing a wave we see coming. 1:22:00 Warrants discussion.
This is pretty intense stuff -- I can't accurately describe -- do yourself a favor and listen to all of this section!
1:26:00 @InvestInOnG Any new names? @jim_duffus discusses RHC, which is zooming, and might have the world's largest helium discovery. No investment advice, "but get in before it's a buck."
@timber001: @BubleQe has gotten Joe into Crew and Kelt. They are premium buy-out candidates. "They merit more attention."
Pieridae ($PEA) has been ripping. Waiting for a pullback to buy more. @jim_duffus Will try to get $PEA geologist on a later call. In praise of Duff for recommending $RHC and shoutout to @ReserveList for his recent helium talk.
@DollaramaKes Wondering how $PEA gets supply. @BarrsDorian Potential catalysts: Existing infrastructure is very valuable. Floating LNG facility planned. NG is part of EU green taxonomy. It's patriotic.
sugarcoats it: "The ultimate shitco." @DollaramaKes A lot of the recent rally is EU/NA nat gas spreads.
1:38:20 @WhiteTundraSG enters the arena! "People on the fence" re: investing consider the same bear case #COM does.
@sohaibab9 enters and discusses energy literacy and how to better educate non-technical people who are curious.
1:48:00 @sohaibab9 "It blows my mind that a guy (Zelensky) who is at war is talking about cancelling fossil fuels."
@WhiteTundraSG Messaging will be important. Why don't we invest in (fossil fuels) locally so we can get energy security? It won't be easy to change minds.
@joemama48072123 Fight the easiest fight. Patriotic barrels. "We're doing something for the good of our country ('Murica!)."
2:00:00 @jim_duffus A North American industry group needs to be pushing the Patriotic Barrel message. @sohaibab9 Social media and grassroots to sway younger minds.
2:03:00 @CdnOandGInvstr with a stark observation on what it will take for the average Canadian to care.
2:07:00 Sohaib documenting and distilling the message with a small budget/small team.
2:08:00 RAZOR! @AlexFilstein on CVE's innovative commercials -- oil is more than just fuel.
2:15:00 @AlexFilstein Perhaps we need a Space on storage of gaseous products that aren't easy to condense.
@joemama48072123 A guerrilla campaign to win hearts and minds with emotion, then buttress with facts. Juxtapose production in Canada vs. how things look in places such as Venezuela.
2:26:00 @trentkelp Compares the Alaskan fishing industry to the Canadian energy industry. Both face very similar challenges.
2:33:00 @jeffchandler55 Another member of the #COM Florida chapter! 2:35:00 @sanjanasinghx @sohaibab9 on the challenges faced in Asia (Pakistan, India).
2:39:00 @SHOPGod2 from the 19th hole!
2:44:30 @WhiteTundraSG says that $VET is smart to use its ridiculous cash flow to buy things such as $LXE. "If they don't have a dividend and they keep growing without dilution, it's great."
"Buying stuff now to position yourself for the future" is good. "I'm very happy with this acquisition. The Mica property has good wells. ... In six months, Crew, Kelt, Spartan Delta are trading at $80K/flowing barrel. Acquisitions wouldn't make sense anymore."
2:48:30 @sohaibab9 describes how CVE purchase of Husky was hooted when it happened. Now it's considered a big win. Is $VET a bad acquirer? @WhiteTundraSG: Corrib was a steal. More realistic: Equinor's wokeness is costing them a ton.
@jonathanslusser and @xBeeriant were discussing Croatia and Vermilion efforts there.
2:56:00 Canadian NG market will change when LNG Canada comes online. N.A. NG has been stuck, but that will change. @WhiteTundraSG $VET has oil in France, could get LNG terminals in Germany. Many catalysts, and they have the FCF to back it up.
3:00:00 How @ericnuttall went from anti-ARX to pro-ARX over a two-year period. What isn't clear yesterday, becomes clear in time. @sohaibab9 Retail investors can often see things faster. Trust your judgment.
Shubham likes how $VET is not hurriedly paying off its debt.
3:04 @Snowp0w Asks @WhiteTundraSG about options for investors new to them. "Understand what you're buying. ... Run the numbers. Don't put a significant amount of money into it."
3:09:00 Special visitor?
3:10:00 @AlexFilstein Debt is misunderstood. Use the opportunity to maximize returns.
3:12:00 @WhiteTundraSG ROK's hedging works in their favor. But companies that are bigger and want to pay off debt is a problem.
Shubham: Paying off debt means you can't generate more than 5% returns. Alex: ROK bought at the bottom and the hedge makes sense. I will be holding (small position) for longer.
3:19:30 @BarrsDorian Giving small companies lots of slack (considering 2020). @JCarney2012 More guidance to those new to options trading. The most conservative option is the covered call. Companies that wisely use debt, can quickly and effectively grow.
3:24:00 @eightcien: How should $LXE shareholders look at the $VET deal? What about ExploreCo? Shubham says ExploreCo shares could be worth a lot of money based on macro and the team in place. @eightcien concurs.
@therealstufff LNG Canada's biggest suppliers? Tourmaline? ARX? Fortis? 3:29 @rockcreekfreak, the Cal Ripken Jr. of #COM, keeps the streak alive, engaging with @InvestInOnG on Petrus.
@InvestInOnG is betting on the Gray family, and he likes the backstopped issuance. $PRQ
How are warrants exercised?
3:42 @AbeEvreniadis Canadian/U.S. companies that would benefit from Germany's new NG policy? $TELL for the future; $VET for now. Can Germany build terminals quickly?
Abe: "European winter is six months away." Nothing is changing in Ukraine. If war ends tomorrow, sanctions not going away. Likely to get worse. This is a complete global repositioning. Thanks, everyone -- let's do this again next week. ... WITH MOAR PETRUS!
High-Energy Tuesday Ep. 5