1:40 Long-dated USD CNQ and CVE options are moving up.
@HectOracle wants those $1 CNQ options that Fidelity claims are out there.
@jleqc Look at the bid-ask spread to see what the price actually is.
Options discussed: CNQ, CVE, WCP, CPG, TVE, VET, ARX
@HectOracle says to start at the bid and work up in $0.05 increments to get a bite. … “I don’t mind paying ~10% premium for up to a year.”
A pox on the pricing of VET options.
6:00 RZE gets hammered. @jleqc is not selling.
Cautions on learning options using this trade. "Don't sweat the small stuff. Enjoy the ride. But don't be afraid to get out with a profit." Short-term BTE options have been obliterated. But we're going to be just dandy. (aside: I'm using long-dated options on CVE, CNQ).
RZE hedging.
11:50 @MasBest2point0 RZE flow-through warrants. He has been bidding at multiple prices in the mid $2 range. He picked up some CPG options out to June at 10% premium. CVE options for Sep/Dec are the best values.
15:00 "Missed opportunity." The confusing communication around RZE has seen it drop 45% from its 52W high, presenting an opportunity to pick up shares. Alberta power could be very interesting for RZE.
17:30 @IlliniProgrammr top-line numbers for RZE look good. Production increased. Happy with capital raise. ... "Doug did a lot of things right."
20:50 "The economics don't look bad."
21:20 @jim_duffus asks about Pine Cliff's sudden dip. Volumes are oddly high.
25:00 @Josh_Young_1 Oil demand is rising, but it's hard to know when prices will rise much higher. It should this summer. Be careful with options. Never invest money you can't afford to lose.
RZE financials are complicated. "You need to understand what happened to understand what's happening." Q4: WTI was $80. When Q1 comes out, you'll see how RZE acts with $100
RZE = risky stock with assymetric upside. But based on current prices, this fund-raise was a nice-to-have, not a have-to-have.
32:30 "Price is going to hunt for $2.50 a share." Higher beta oil stocks underperforming.
49:00 Natural gas and where it's headed.
54:30 Is Wall Street/Bay Street/Europe piling in? Is that why some stocks (PNE, SDE) acting so strangely?
56:30 @HectOracle: Make $ by trading out of big winners and putting proceeds into laggers.
Hector: PNE up 135%. throw some of your winnings into ERF or TVE. Just look at how stocks have done since JAN-01, good way to diversify your O+G holdings.
@IlliniProgrammr The Holy Grail is trying to figure out who rallies next.
59:20 @JamesHMackay based on charts, likes $ARX to break out. PLOT TWIST: James sold half of his PNE. Too high, too fast! He also bought $GSL, a shipper based on @mintzmyer's analysis. "Helluva lot more undervalued than $ZIM."
1:04:00 James made a killing on $AMR as coking coal remains at elevated levels. He sold some $SD after a quick rise. He bought $MEG, $ARX, $TAL and $AOI.
James thinks AOI can break out, a Space is upcoming with the AOI team. James also just bought some CVE. @crudegusher says refiners will have a great time in Q2.
Sankey picked PBF as a good refiner on CNBC yesterday. He likes all downstream. Discussion of Tourmaline and Spartan Delta.
1:09:44 Tourmaline could be the next CNQ?
1:10:15 @InvestInOnG slams the door open and roughs up anyone who disses Mike Rose or Big Murr
@BarrsDorian sold $ATH. They had a lot of debt, and refinanced it with horrible terms and offered 80M warrants with a strike price that massively diluted it.
@InvestInOnG requires proof that the Europeans (esp. Germany) are serious.
1:19:40 @gnostic1977 U.S. buying and selling is driving the price of $PNE. The U.S. market doesn't show the volume.
1:30:00 @WhiteTundraSG Discusses an individual who owns a large piece of $PNE. This person is trading large amounts of the company every day.
3:00:30 @thejeff85 gives us an IPO idea -- Excelerate Energy, trading on the NYSE as EE. A floating storage/regasification LNG play.
It's not a total downside case, but there's a better equity: MEG. Is CVE aiming for $COP refineries in the U.S.? In retrospect, the asset sales don't look good. MEG's buyback looks good.
1:48:55 CVE like SGY and SDE (when hedges roll off)?
1:51:40 $WCP. When fund managers (especially the ESG crowd) take their lumps, they'll have to go to White Cap. Shubham likes the options. 1:55:00 MEG well below its 52W high. Why?
1:57:00 Can't buy WCP options if you're in the U.S. OBE doesn't even have options. How about CPG options? @InvestInOnG is not a fan. @thejeff85 laments Serica's lack of liquidity and likes Canadian firms that are dual-listed.
2:00:40 Serica ($SQZZF) is a no-charge stock on Fidelity. Is that FCF legit? People don't understand European NG. "It's a lot worse than it looks. ... Very bullish on $VET." IPCO?
2:19:00 #COM's Poet Laureate, @SHOPGod2, delivers an ode to Climate Claire. "There's a little SAG-D in us all."
2:26:00 James updates on BTE. Looks like 2023 is when they will surge in the Clearwater. Duff looks into the $PNE trades. One man is trading hundreds of thousands of shares a day. Can you sneak in and buy a few shares at a discount? TOU trades 1M shares/day in CA, 70K in U.S.
"Nintendo-gaming it." @UndervaluedOnG and @MasBest2point0 on spreads between U.S.-Canadian trades.
2:31:30 "That schmuck was me!" DS in timeout for insulting a fellow #COM member. @thejeff85 Reminds us to never use the Charles Schwab in the car when suffering FOMO.
@InvestInOnG and @jleqc 100% limit orders. James makes the case for not using limit orders. Royal Helium?
2:37:00 @UndervaluedOnG Put in a buy order 5-10% lower than market close and sell a minute after market opens. GO BACK TO FIDELITY!
@DSteinmoeller talking Nine Point Energy Income fund.
2:46:00 Did Prime Minister Nuttall have a cabinet meeting with Weather Minister Duff? Was it a liquor cabinet meeting?
2:54:00 @jleqc Don't go for dividends, go for capital growth. @jim_duffus BNN segment where the guest calls for $52 CVE and says sell at $26. ... @MasBest2point0 loves CVE options (dividends stink). ... You can get long-dated options for next to nothing.
2:58:30 @thejeff85 gives us an IPO idea -- Excelerate Energy, trading on the NYSE as EE. A floating storage/regasification LNG play.
EE is a new name for those who have "been scouring the dregs" of the energy world.
$PBR -- Petrobras goes ex-dividend Thursday with a $1.20 USD/share dividend.
@MasBest2point0 and @WhiteTundraSG $SDE. It's up 35% in the last six weeks. Compares favorably to Pipestone and other competitors. Decline rates are 0% for first year. "There's something special here."
@rockcreekfreak is not a Montney guy, but he knows Spartan Delta's Bellatrix property. Company bought it for $102M. SDE has been adding. Printing money at today's prices. They can grow through more acquisitions or the drill bit.
3:11:10 Any assets SDE has an eye on? Rock Creek explains how land acquisitions work in Alberta.
Discussions of Rubellite, I3. ... "Too bad Spur isn't public. ... Dominant footprint. Those guys are probably all very wealthy." Overlooking BTE? 3:24:10 @BurggrabenH "You have to many names to track." @jleqc The sector is too target-rich.
"These are winners, and I'm not selling them. ..." Unless I see something more compelling.
3:27:30 @MasBest2point0 OBE is insanely excited about its Clearwater drilling.
3:29:10 @JamesHMackay "Uranium is hitting a tipping point." James likes Kazatomprom (KAP on the LSE).
James thinks KAP is going to 40 in quick order (James owns a big chunk). ... Shout-out to our main radioactive man, @energyburrito! Can't buy CAP in U.S. or Canada, but you can invest in URNM, an ETF with KAP as top holding.
Jeff also thinks agriculture is a good bet.
3:36:15 Shubham talks his rationale for putting companies on his black list.
Shubham is on the road right now and recommends everyone to go out and see the world.
High-Energy Tuesday Ep. 7