3:00 A discussion of stocks that are lagging facilitated by @HectOracle
5:30 War ending might be beginning of a run -- not a dip.
Hector ran charts for last 3/6 months. Three laggers: ERF, TVE, CPG.
7:30 Everything is pretty much 47+% up since January, except these three. Is there something that should keep us away?
8:45 Talking the process of evaluating these three. Shout-out to @garquake for sharing all his charts!
11:15 @jleqc says a cheap way to buy all three is to use their options. (aside: Americans can't buy TVE options, but can buy ERF and CPG out to 21-OCT).
Crescent Point: Myriad things to piss you off, but it has brand-name recognition. CPG has 4X volume of ERF and 50X volume of TVE (TNEYF) in the U.S.
19:00 @InvestInOnG likes TVE. Not a fan of Bakken (ERF) and is not a fan of CPG hedging.
"Q1 is going to open some eyes." ... TVE's lagging spurred a decision to buy it instead of $OBE. Determining when to sell after a company has had a run.
23:00 TVE's hedging is much better than BTE's. @DSteinmoeller: What did you sell to buy Tamarack? Deep sold Cenovus and outlines rationale for swapping out.
26:00 Plot twists! @DSteinmoeller sold CVE to buy more $MEG. Deep recently sold ARX to buy $MEG. @jim_duffus sold $TVE(!) to buy $NRGI. Duff also bought some $SDE last week.
28:30 @IBB_INVEST gives catalysts that could spur CPG upward.
32:30 CPG hedging is explained on a specific page on its Web site. It's 50-55% unhedged.
@WhiteTundraSG explains rationale for exiting CPG after talking to management. CPG and $SDE have been marketing in the U.S. Shubham thinks TVE is going to make an acquisition.
35:30 Shubham is "bearish on everything in the Bakken."
36:30 @rockcreekfreak on $TVE's prior acquisitions and their drilling. "They went nuts ... during COVID."
41:15 "There is concern they're going to buy more and dilute ... but they've assembled a solid amount of inventory."
43:00 "Ultimately, this business is a science. ... You have to study the assets ... all the stuff on the ground before you do financial decisions" on investing.
$TVE gets the @rockcreekfreak Good Rock-keeping seal of approval!
45:00 @rockcreekfreak plays the outro, and @jleqc muses on stocks being a popularity contest. Without a good number of energy analysts, sometimes the mean girls beat the good girls.
48:30 Beware the "tidal wave of dumb money."
49:30 This is why you don't fully exit $CVE and hold onto that $CNQ. @DSteinmoeller: as Rafi of @CanoeEnergy says "The market hugs the megacaps." The megacaps outperform despite the smaller FCF yields.
52:30 The @jleqc-@InvestInOnG-@nyetjgoldblum no-more-than-8%-in-anything fund.
A great discussion of what to buy because it lagged. ** For the future: Let's look at the other side of the equation -- what's overvalued relative to peers, so we can sell and scale into the laggards? **
@KramerKarma1 points out that $OBE's performance hasn't been matched with a corresponding amount of popularity. "I wish I'd listened to you months before!"
56:30 @EnergyInvest0r "Nobody's willing to grow. What about picking stocks that are growing?" "$NVA is growing hard, but it's not like their FCF is light."
@jim_duffus "It gets lumped with $POU." @WhiteTundraSG: "If NVA can grow, it's looking great for the future. ... Growth + FCF." Shubham likes SDE, but NVA has great potential.
59:00 @CouldBeMistaken 3 big holdings: $VET, $CR and $OBE. $CR and $OBE growing comfortably. Subtracting growth CAPEX shows growers are yielding nicely (e.g. $OBE, $CR 20% growth). People are being lazy about evaluating these firms, not realizing what '23 BOE looks like.
Discussion of $NVA, $CR, $SDE. @Albertagarbage notes that there is an inventory of licensed wells in Blueberry territory. @CouldBeMistaken: "Classic case of markets trying to understand uncertainty. ... It's an issue until it's not. Risk I'm happy to take."
1:04:10 @InvestInOnG OBE is attractive because of growth and current prices. Petrus and Journey are rapidly growing and will pay debt quickly. Petrus is hedged but has 50% growth rate.
@CouldBeMistaken is buying FCF so in time, he gets paid. 1:08:00 $VET and $GTE updates. Vermilion is doing more drilling in Europe, and beat its high-end production target. $GTE projects 341% FCF increase at $95 Brent.
@jim_duffus leads discussion of NRGI. Lots of U.S. holdings. Jim is ready for those 15%-19% divys, but @jleqc sounds a note of caution regarding the limitations of covered calls.
1:15:00 @Renniestein3 provides an example of buying VET at $28.22 (CAD), then selling a covered call and selling a put to get into the options game.
It sounds as if it is much harder to get approval to trade options in Canada. ... Lots of study required to get a handle on trading. @BMWeinstein7 and @jleqc riff on options. Brendan discusses his winning $VET options play, and some of the downside.
1:34:00 On dips, @joemama48072123 would sell NNRG to buy other things, because he anticipates NNRG would drop less. He'd also buy more options (assuming they dip). Watch a Shubham, Eric or @Josh_Young_1 video then buy when others are afraid.
1:39:00 Move aside, @HectOracle, we have Schacter, the reverse-oracle! A bow-tie and a 1.000 batting average. @Zeal1203 Counterpoint: It might take others 6-8 months to figure oil out. This can make shorter-term options worthless.
1:43:00 @Albertagarbage thinks there's a reasonable chance of a global recession over the next 18 months. ... 5-10 year timeframe to resolve energy production issues. No one wants to work in Canada, let alone Nigeria. Growth is not going to happen.
A nightmare scenario where Russian production could plummet in a year. "We have been complete, abject morons and killed the industry that keeps us alive. ... Could oil go to $50? Sure, it could. It's not going to stay there very long."
CNQ did an 11X the last time we were in anything like this. Could Big Murr get CNQ to $200?
1:51:30 @jleqc What is the Freedom Now/100% YOLO trade? Not recommending it, but what would we do?
@EnergyInvest0r and @nyetjgoldblum: 100% $VET. "With what's going on in Europe, if shit hits the fan? That's the YOLO play." @InvestInOnG: "$35 December $VET calls." @jleqc: "Believe our own eyes."
1:56:00 @jim_duffus on seven-year cycles. How long are we in this trade? Duff: 5 years. @EnergyInvest0r is done buying. He is paying off margin slowly, but surely.
2:00:00 @puckdunk 2 YOLOs: 1. $150 WTI call options. 2. Seadrill or Transocean
Hot summer could yield absurd NG demand.
2:01:00 **** @WhiteTundraSG **** Shubham says sooner than people think, the risk/reward won't be worth it. ... This cycle goes longer than my investment timeline. Shubham talks about "taking your chips off the table" so you don't hold to the bottom.
2:31:00 @thejeff85 Trading based on earnings projections. @InvestInOnG played with fire and has only traded on $X going into earnings. @JamesHMackay on @mintzmyer's tankers call. James isn't comfortable being 100% in one sector.
2:39:40 @Sami_lynnnnn holds forth on options.
@Hawkeye94823225 Duff's alter ego checks in.
2:48:00 @lyearwood87 gives some info on the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and where the oil comes from to fill it up.
@wascalwabbitt and @InvestInOnG discuss $TVE hedging via puts and collars. Puts on $USO could provide downside insurance.
2:57:30 @SGSilkySmoov and @Sami_lynnnnn discuss $CVE options going into earnings.
@Sami_lynnnnn channels @jleqc, discussing downside to options investing that hits home extra hard because they both experienced the loss first-hand.
3:07:00 @marcolhub brings up $OYL and Fronterra.
@kdubbsy on a large amount of $VET options and hedging downside risk. As @Sami_lynnnnn says, be mindful of decay.
3:15:00 @HectOracle on covered calls and selling puts on coveted stocks such as $VET.
@BarrsDorian discusses options.
@InvestInOnG asks about @WhiteTundraSG's next presentation: May 7 is TOU, TVE and a mystery name.
@Zeal1203 said in DMs (jealous?!) that his YOLO play would be $PEA.
**** @NachoTrust will be joining us in two weeks (03-MAY) to discuss $ARX, NG, the market in Mexico, and $AAV? ****
3:21:30 Shubham discusses his updated price target sheet. Canadian NG production is at all-time highs, but demand far exceeds it. $TOU, $PNE, $AAV, $BIR, $ARX become very attractive because AECO strip is over $7.
$VET is drilling in Germany. Croatia wells will come on line this year. Banks saying $VET might be making more acquisitions. Aggressive management that understands the macro.
https://www.whitetundra.ca/pricetargets
@BarrsDorian likes Pieridae, and is then committed by the host to talk about $PEA next week! @Zeal1203 is also requested to attend and talk $PEA.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/pieridae-energy-mulls-smaller-floating-lng-project-due-to-costs-1.1715087?jwsource=cl
Thanks to @brianhumphrie19 for providing Pieridae color, and I hope he attends next week and joins the discussion!
High-Energy Tuesday Ep. 8