0:00:30 A company that's doing things the right way: ARCH.
00:03:30 The ARCH story provides a path forward for #COM names such as Pine Cliff.
00:04:30 Discussion of Pieridae ($PEA / $PTOAF). First up, @Zeal1203 gives a high-level view of the company, and why he suggested it as a "YOLO play" during last week's Space.
00:12:30 "Big Picture -- what's the set-up?" More political will for Eastern Canada LNG production for export. ... Tellurian as a potential model.
00:15:00 @jim_duffus Trying to get $PEA executive to talk in the future.
00:16:00 @BarrsDorian dives deeper. Midstream infrastructure is worth 10X $PEA's enterprise value.
00:19:00 Sulfur is a potential catalyst. Carbon sequestration and power generation. Similar to $JOY and $RZE?
00:27:00 When is $PEA going to announce Q1 earnings? @IlliniProgrammr comments on LNG projects, cash-raises and the liquidity of small caps.
Dorian sees them as an upstream provider with LNG optionality. Germany/Poland/France are potential customers.
00:31:00 @sohaibab9 quotes a source who provides excellent color on the political challenges involved in the LNG project.
00:38:00 Well-positioned if NG pricing remains high.
00:41:00 It appears support building is for the larger LNG facility. How to value this? Compare to Tellurian. At $14/mmBTU and cost of $5 USD, $2.7B of FCF in first year. ...
46:30 @brianhumphrie19 provides his concerns related to $PEA.
00:49:00 No financing is in place for international deals.
Third-Eye Capital loans appear to be very expensive (12% per annum + 3% per quarter) plus an additional $50M in long-term debt added in 2022.
1:21:00 Pivot to discussing the broad sell-off in #COM stocks and outside the energy sphere.
1:33:00 @IlliniProgrammr There is risk in these trades. You can have strong alpha, but if volatility increases, that's gonna force you out of your positions.
If you perceive higher risk, you'll naturally back off.
trying to "quit" energy -- by cutting 5%-10%.
1:39:00 Shout-out to
and his April survey!
Speakers asked to mention a company they like/hate when they speak.
1:41:00 @AhmedBa44329064 Likes CPG options. Bad hedging going away.
Per @jonathanslusser only 28% of those responding to the #COM poll use options -- hence me asking "what about the common for the 72% of us who don't use options?"
Ahmed adds a fascinating counter-intuitive (to me) detail -- supermajors underperform vs. small caps in down markets. So $ITE is safer than $CNQ?!
*** Sorry to cut things short. Here to me is the most important discussion of the day: 2:05:00
The dynamic has changed. ****
High-Energy Tuesday Ep. 9