00:01:30 @jleqc and @philoinvestor join. With natural gas trading at $419/BOE at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), Philo discusses the outlook in Europe.
00:09:30 EU politicians moving toward a windfall profits tax? What would that look like? The UK appears to be pivoting away from energy taxes. @Davis_Kelly1 is NG primed to move lower?
Philo discusses how power companies' hedging missteps have led to enormous margin calls and EU intervention. He says this is an example of why investors should avoid heavily leveraged businesses.
00:20:30 "We in Europe are mostly jokers." Capital expenditures are required to reduce prices. What is the Russian influence on commodities trading? @lyearwood87 joins to "eat crow." Lance and @jleqc discusses Cheniere, North American dynamics and reactionary politicians.
Lance has gone from equity heavy to cash heavy to equity heavy. He's a bit concerned that he doesn't have too much cash, but he has a lot of $VET and U.S. NG equities. He is comfortable with Vermilion because of TTF exposure. "We're in the calm before the storm."
00:29:30 @Renniestein3 asks about shutting down derivatives markets such as TTF(?!), windfall taxes and price caps. Philo thinks a lot of promises will be made, but few will be implemented. There isn't enough thought/knowledge being applied.
Can Europe pivot to energy prices based on JKM instead of TTF? Reiterating Philo's earlier point about avoiding CAPEX and keying on taxes.
00:35:30 Philo discusses his thoughts on $VET.
"I don't believe enough people understand the Vermilion thesis." @BrianjBabbage asks about Canadian stock buybacks. Always a shout-out to my buyback gurus: @BubleQe and @jenstilmanydots
00:46:00 Who are you, and what have you done with the real @WTIBull?! WTI gives a bullish (and realistic) case for $VET. WTI has been buying $VET and some juniors. He has previously been a "skeptic" of the smaller firms.
00:50:00 @thiccnoggin asks about hedged NG vs. price caps. Would the floors be guaranteed? A fascinating question -- is this proof that EU governments are considering moves despite not knowing the risks?
00:58:00 @timber001 is a @philoinvestor fan (Joe's right, Philo's a must follow). Are we close to contango for March oil contracts? @mfwarder discusses oil-gas-coal switching.
Matt discusses Cheniere and U.S. foreign policy.
1:07:00 @AhmedBa44329064 has no AC, but also has thoughts on Cheniere. Matt looks at the cost of power using NG vs. Coal -- domestically, and in Europe.
Matt discusses why there is a delta between coal and NG spot prices -- if you can get tons, coal is cheaper.
1:17:30 $CEIX is contracting tons from its new long wall. Matt looks at Consol's domestic pricing vs. spot prices in Europe. The difference is significant.
Coal skeptic @MasBest2point0 joins and asks about emissions in Matt's models (we're going to make you a coal believer, CaP!). Is the railroad situation getting better? @Nandospage and @timber001 revisit O+G contango. Joe is bullish coal and $VET.
1:32:30 Matt is shorting Henry Hub a bit by using $KOLD. $KOLD is an ETF that's double short gas, $BOIL is the opposite ETF (double long). Ciao, Philo! Nando gives an update on Portugal. Europeans are flocking there for respite.
Some observations on my recent trip to LA.
1:47:00 In the midst of a heatwave, the OG member of the California Oil Mafia, @WhiteTundraSG, joins. It sounds unlikely Shubham will be buying a Chevy Bolt.
Shubham discusses why some California oil gets Brent pricing and $CRC.
1:58:00 I mention $BRY, which leads to a discussion of going down the risk curve. Ahmed sold some of his $VET(!). Considering today's slide, Ahmed did well.
2:19:00 @Sheriooz joins and asks about potential shale growth (or lack thereof) and the decrease in rig count. A 1M barrel increase in US production? Sherif discusses how COVID accelerated a shale decline that was noticeable in 2019.
2:29:00 @slocumfortexas joins, discusses what he's seeing, and asks about Canadian energy.
2:41:00 @IlliniProgrammr CFTC data shows that hedge funds have been reducing their exposure to oil and gas futures.
3:05:00 WTI pricing in Q3 has now dipped below Q1 pricing. CaP notes that the USD-CAD exchange rate is in #COM stocks' favor. The case for coal -- @mfwarder discusses how the market has changed since 2020, and which companies are looking good now, in 2023 and in 2024.
High-Energy Tuesday