00:00:30 @RazorOil takes the stage and talks about the converging triangle of WTI pricing that’s moving upward. #COM providing guidance and support to build conviction in the case for energy.
#COM has helped in so many ways, such as bringing $JOY / $JRNGF to my attention last year, which led to more than 200%+ returns in under six months.
Razor discusses Craig Schnell and risk-mitigation strategies discussed in his recent Space.
00:06:30 @Feynman_19 joins the stage and discusses whether energy is a “crowded” space for investors.
00:08:50 @AhmedBa44329064 asks about NG use by oil-sands E&Ps such as MEG.
Razor provides excellent color and demonstrates how rising NG costs won't be a huge drag on costs for the oil-sands companies.
00:19:50 Deep Thoughts from @InvestInOnG vs. 100% incel thoughts. The DS family awaits those announced dividends.
Pivot toward coal, and an activist note regarding $AMR that gave a buying opportunity for those of us with dry powder.
Trying to make sense of $VET’s roller-coaster SP.
Market still doesn't appear to have priced in Vermilion's theft of Corrib.
00:25:40 @thebiglong9 and @jleqc join on stage. Big discusses windfall tax on UK E&Ps. It appears to be a cynical ploy for an administration mired in scandal. Big says to be diversified by country to avoid political risk. UK energy firms are already taxed twice as much as non-energy.
00:36:00 Deep asks about the future of North Sea drilling under a new tax regime. Big thinks that investment in exploration will be exempt from taxation.
00:40:00 @mfwarder, Coal Twitter Cognoscenti, joins to discuss a varied number of topics.
Matt laughingly discusses the fishiness of the activist, anti-$AMR note and begins a macro discussion.
Matt sees an NG deficit and a similar coal deficit. “If last year was bad, we’re in a worse position to supply the grid. There’s still more upside between coal and gas.” Matt asks if the NG price gap between N.A. and Europe can close.
Deep sees coal and gas going up. Matt ponders a cold New England winter with retiring coal plants and no access to Russian energy.
00:54:00 Ahmed pivots back to UK energy companies and potential windfall taxes. Big says he has a small position in Serica and says the FCF is so high that will be a good holding, regardless.
LNG Canada coming on line will add extra pressure to pricing.
1:00:00 @IlliniProgrammr asks about European NG storage. JKM and TTF are competing for LNG cargoes from U.S.
1:06:30 Can China increase coal production?
Where will Australian coal go?
1:14:00 The Money Question: If Matt was starting a coal portfolio today, what are names he would suggest researching?
$ARCH, $AMR, $HCC, $BTU and $CEIX. Matt has 25% of his portfolio in those names, and rotates in and out of these names based on their trending. $WHITF, $TRNGF are the two U.S. OTC trading symbols for two other names to consider. ARCH has been best about identifying how they’re returning FCF to shareholders.
If Matt's targets are accurate, $ARCH is looking at a 27% dividend for 2022 (at current pricing).
1:22:30 Matt thinks $BTU will have excellent Q2-Q3 results, which will surprise many.
Deep professes his love for $BTU management. Because coal is mainly a retail investors’ world now, companies need to carefully explain their plan to shareholders.
1:26:45 @BarrsDorian takes the stage.
1:36:30 Matt looks for met coal to take longer to grind down because of Chinese demand. Thermal coal is the question mark looking out beyond three months.
@timber001 heartily recommends following Matt for baseball, whiskey and coal knowledge, and asks about $AMR and its ridiculous valuation.
On the fly, Matt calculates $AMR’s FCF upside and mentions its possible the company could do a 100% share buyback in two years.
1:48:30
Are coal companies aligned with returning shareholder value? PTSD from bankruptcies, "This is a new lease on life for these guys." Matt is confident Alliance, ARCH, AMR and Consol are in proper alignment.
2:04:30 Could the federal government work to support increased coal production?
2:15:00 At what cost would production be reduced?
2:23:00 @jleqc on charts and energy stocks.
2:40:00 @ArtVandelay_II, one of the rare portfolio managers buying energy stocks, takes the stage.
2:49:00 Art is anticipating an ESG-lite that will allow funds to include energy stocks.
3:01:00 @jim_duffus takes the stage. N̶e̶v̶e̶r̶ buy $SU again!
@canadawriter draws parallels between farming and the trade.
3:09:40 @IlliniProgrammr sees some U.S. entry into smaller #COM stocks.
3:15:30 @ChefWai93 discusses refineries and his thoughts on $VTNR.
3:24:00 Art thinks that fund managers will have energy stocks on the books by end of Q2 ... or else.
@IlliniProgrammr talks about how U.S. funds must disclose holdings at the end of each quarter. Funds will sell losers before being required to report.
3:30:00 @SHOPGod2 on Cathie Wood's ARKK funds still getting funds in-flows despite the bloodbath.
@energyburrito early innings.
@MC_mike411 discusses a recent meeting with royalty. Signs that U.S. generalists are coming into #COM stocks?
3:50:00 "Just buy $ARX."
Eric’s income fund uses covered calls, and when Mike goes into detail, jleqc is intrigued!
4:02:00 $VET's best sales team is #COM. VET should come on a Space and provide the company's value proposition, as CPG is doing.
4:09:00 @jleqc on how he discovered Yangarra and why he decided to take a position.
4:29:30 People make trades based on name recognition.
4:47:00 @anasalhajji discusses dividends and government intervention moving markets.
High-Energy Wednesday