@nyetjgoldblum @jleqc and @InvestInOnG discuss the day.
00:04:30 @IlliniProgrammr on NG vs. coal.
00:09:30 @jim_duffus joins and discusses $WCP and $TVE. J riffs with Jim about $OBE and $SDE and other #COM names. Duff broke the rule and threw away the note. Suncor! Deep touches on Whitecap earnings. Duff and J discuss Chemtrade.
00:19:00 J intros $BTU discussion. Deep talks on Peabody's 200 DMA. Illini thinks the name has too many traders not enough investors.
00:27:30 @mfwarder joins. Matt concurs with Illini's observations on options expiry. "There are way more eyeballs on this. ... It's a recipe for volatility."
00:34:00 J discusses $GXE how the stock is the same price as it was a while ago, but in net cash. What happens when the price doesn't tell the story?
00:39:00 Deep asks about Gear's reserve life. Is this a reason behind Gear's low valuation. @JamesHMackay: The coal trade still looks amazing.
Matt: 21-22 was CEIX, AMR and ARCH; 23 will be BTU; Warrior (HCC) will become the story. ... @HalfbeardCanada bought more Gear. Deep notes that the reserve life on Gear is five years.
00:51:00 @Seawolfcap wants to spice it up. Twitter War on Met coal vs. Thermal? There are 125 of us who care! Porter touches on HCC, AMR and BTU. Matt talks China and demand slowing.
00:58:00 Are we always going to be the "Bad-News Bears"? Illini compares PBF Energy to Peabody. "How many people would be happy to park in a 20% compound for a decade?" ... @MiserMcMiserson pivots back to $WCP and begins a discussion of BOE. ... Is Whitecap "hiding behind the 'E' in BOE?" Deep and Miser touch on Whitecap's acquisition making things gassier, and possibly the same for Exxon. Ditch IPCO, go long PBR.A?
1:08:00 @Albertagarbage discusses BOE -- "One of the worst financial metrics. ... GAAP accounting measures should ban (its) use." If Garbage sees a firm reporting in BOE, he thinks "SHITCO."
1:11:00 Twitter's Tolstoy of Peabody Threads, @8750Capital joins and discusses his backstory and how he came to $BTU.
8750 started his career in investment banking in metals/mining. He was involved in $BTU's refinancing during its Chapter 11 and traded in/out for years before really returning 18 months ago. Discussing Elliott Management's position and recent moves in the name. 8750 thinks most of the selling is EM trying to return capital to their fund. They have skin in the game, but it's been a slog.
1:25:00 When will capital returns start? What will they look like? Why would BTU keep a large amount of cash on hand? 8750 thinks we should listen to @EnergyCredit1
1:33:00 Deep opens a discussion of BTU buying back from Elliott. ... Contrasting the WHC production call to the BTU earnings call. The WHC call was full of detail and analysts asking trenchant questions. The BTU analysts had no interest.
1:43:00 Matt: The 125 of us that care are converging on consensus. These companies are ineffective communicators, and things have to change. Who can help these poor companies do a better job? @mfwarder has a great suggestion!
1:48:00 8750 gives his (post)elevator pitch. How did BTU come to hold Aussie operations?
1:53:30 @TwinTurboCe1ica juxtaposes Matt vs. @OneMoreif(!). There has been some price improvement, but valuations are still ridiculously low, e.g. $YAL having a lower enterprise value than its COVID low.
2:00:00 Would the Inflation Reduction Act provide a catalyst for BTU? @VD718 joins shares his thoughts.
2:19:30 Setting up a conversation on TECK's announced radical revamping. ... 8750 gives some final thoughts. He recommends keeping some powder dry. "Stay alive and benefit."
2:29:30 Matt discusses $CEIX and a recent 8750 thread. Is the coast clear? Is it derisked? There is some agreement and respectful disagreement. Wait? What?!
2:37:00 @jleqc pivots the conversation to $TECK and its decision to spin off its met coal assets. Matt thinks these met assets are some of the world's best.
Matt riffs on @puppyeh1's quick look at Teck's moves. "I think it's very clever ... very interesting." Twin talks about the toxicity of coal assets and ESG. "You need to get rid of these assets." Twin likes the move. Glencore?
The gang riffs on how the big miners deal with ESG. 2:58:00 @MiserMcMiserson talks about Pakistan increasing coal use. Matt notes that the ESG crowd is saying nothing as a poor country is going to power itself with terrible-quality coal.
3:06:30 @jimmycrow__ joins to discuss an exciting investment idea: Timber pegs. @alisterberkeley draws us out of the pegging ditch, looking at how WHC hasn't dropped below its ex-div price.
3:13:00 @TwinTurboCe1ica with a radical idea for Yancoal to go into copper? Why?! Twin builds and delivers a compelling case. Alister: Many would rather the cash.
3:19:00 Twin explains how YAL could go into just about anything: Get out of Australia and look at LATAM or Africa.
3:22:00 We need @elonmusk on one of our Spaces. ... WHC buybacks? The gang chews on what the flagship NEWC name is planning. ... Matt takes us out with SCIENCE (don't peg the messenger!).
High-Energy Wednesday