00:02:00 Trying to time things in a time of extreme change. ... DS sells out of Latin American holdings and gets peace of mind.
This week’s moves:
Closed out positions in: BHP, CJ, GTE, PBR, WDS
Added to: CNQ, CVE, MEG, OBE, OVV, SGY, SU, TVE, VET
Good reason for adding CVE and SU.
00:06:00 @jleqc is more bullish at lower prices. He pleads with #COM to remember to sell a bit when things get too euphoric.
Smooth Tinder criminal @Albertagarbage sold Athabasca and is investing in new ventures. AG talks a potential YOLO with CNQ.
00:14:30 J and AG talk charts and the rationale behind the YOLO. Contrary opinions are welcome, but mudslinging? Not so much.
00:20:30 @IlliniProgrammr on shorts spooking the WTI market.
Vermilion and Surge bouncing down despite macro showing the reality that these companies are undervalued. Illini thinks buybacks are the way forward.
00:28:30 @WarrenFine works blue, then starts a conversation about refining capacity vs. oversupply of oil.
Illini notes the U.S. refiners selling off yesterday.
00:40:00 @jamesyachyshen compares the current energy situation to his experiences with $NTR and being early to the party.
James suggests perhaps walking away for the summer and return in the fall to good news in your portfolio.
@therealstufff retail investors reacting only to oil price -- not companies' FCF. He anticipates the S&P dropping into the low-mid 2,000s and is in cash.
00:58:30 @Astervox42 interest rate a negative factor on #COM stock prices. Lower stock/oil prices mean less CAPEX. Zhaozhe moving out of small caps into CNQ, which has lagged, along with TVE. @timber001 says when prices drop, he buys.
1:09:00 @DerAchsenZeit makes his Spaces debut (I think?). Welcome! Is this trade fighting the FED? Should we be fighting the FED? @jleqc, Joe S. and @HectOracle, Illini share their thoughts. Pullbacks are an opportunity. Hector discusses Seawolf Capital moving into $VET.
1:19:30 @AssetTraveller makes himself feel better by looking at company presentations. These days are not fun, but they are part of the journey. Warren notes we are 9 months into a 2-year timeline. UK #COM member pijoe1212 sounds good, looks good.
@Renniestein3 and Pete discuss Serica Energy, and how the UK windfall tax is horribly designed to punish some energy companies and not others.
1:32:00 The conversation pivots to Australia's royalties increase on met coal, which gives U.S. producers an edge. Why? Potentially because U.S. met coal producers are so small, they might be overlooked/unpunished by the Biden Administration.
Pete discusses his experiences with leasing an EV. J tells him to move to Alberta if times get tough in the UK.
1:45:00 @Lava_Flow2 has technical difficulties. @JoeBeattie11 comes up to discuss refinery issues.
1:53:00 increasing refining capacity in N.A.
1:59:00 O'Hare's Jitterbug finally connects, and he discusses small caps and how they are affected much more during the dips/rips. Don't panic when this happens.
2:05:30 @MiserMcMiserson talks about refinery utilization. Because it's driving season, no refinery will be shut down unless it has to be, and everything is running as much as it can.
More on the possibility for increased capacity.
2:15:30 Is it possible for an Operation Warp Speed/Manhattan Project accelerated refinery build in the U.S.?
2:26:30 @MRAfunds says no one is willing to finance a new refinery. There's no regulatory certainty. U.S. refineries selling for 1X cash flow are still on the block because of fear. #COM investors should pool our resources, and buy a damn refinery.
@gnostic1977 joins and continues the refinery pessimism. (DS editorial comment: We are led by morons).
2:36:30 @semicorporate pivots the discussion to nuclear power.
Pete is pessimistic about SMR reactors coming online and replacing UK's nuclear reactors.
@Paulgas9 identifies two refineries that could be nationalized. He discusses issues with building nukes in the U.S. and issues posed by outside actors such as China.
Pete discusses an epic #COM Space that lasted an entire evening and into the morning. NOT THIS SPACE. This Space is never more than 6 hours!
3:01:00 @RazorOil joins to add logic, calm and numbers as a balm to listeners.
3:10:00 @InvestInOnG longterm outlook unchanged.
3:28:30 Are there incentives for companies increase CAPEX? Deep says no, unless it’s to reduce debt.
3:35:00 @HalfbeardCanada bought more TVE. Know what you own.
David asks that people stay away from margins and options. Buy and hold what you love and enjoy the summer.
3:48:00 @sohaibab9 The Stampede Party (#COM Oscars) is coming soon. More than $17,000 was raised to send kids to camp. ... GREAT STUFF, Sohaib!
4:01:00 Moving from small-caps to the larger caps. DS did some of that. @jleqc is not having any of it.
4:08:00 Jlecq recommends "The Biggest Bluff: How I Learned to Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win" by Maria Konnikova -- a great book about decision-making.
4:15:00 @Seawolfcap joins. Porter discusses his backstory. He began investing in energy four years ago, and notes how ESG was causing people to disappear from the energy space, and how institutional money is not coming back.
Porter's team has shorted a lot of tech and consumer companies, but is long a number of energy names. Hector asks about how Porter sets a price target for his companies. Divvys or buybacks? Porter prefers dividends.
Porter tells @MasBest2point0 he likes to put eggs in lots of baskets. He was in Antero earlier to get access to propane/NGLs. 4:36:00 Porter discusses "The Big Short" -- saying the book and the movie were quite accurate. Michael Burry suffered more pain.
4:49:00 Porter has owned $BTE, $MEG, $JOY. The Canadian names came on his radar because he was on a board of a Canadian company, and he stared doing comps to similar names. He found they were cheap and bought.
4:51:00 @Lava_Flow2 and @Seawolfcap close out the Space with a great discussion of coal -- thermal vs. met -- solving the energy issue with lots of nuclear, and a number of other topics.
High-Energy Wednesday