00:01:00 @jleqc and @MiserMcMiserson join. Finding the ray of sunshine on a dark day. 00:05:30 Miser begins a larger discussion of refining with a look at the Dangote Refinery, and his role in the project.
Miser discusses the gasoline hydrotreating unit, which he works on.
00:13:30 Miser discusses the refinery production coming online between now and YE23.
"You can't just build these things on a whim or a dime." The conversation turns to North America. What will it take to build/rebuild refining U.S. capacity? Miser has an innovative long-shot: Get the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers involved.
In a rational world, we would replace old refineries. "You have a '57 Chevy in the driveway, and other people are driving new Accords and Corvettes." If the Government got involved in refining, the work would be done by industry.
"It could work, but no one has the big-picture mentality."
00:24:30 Miser looks at the fires and other issues refineries are facing. Basically, refineries are operating as if their assets have dwindling value.
00:29:30 @IlliniProgrammr joins and asks about PBF and Valero's geographic advantages vs. international refiners. @WhiteTundraSG asks about Mexican refining and refinery valuations. "They go for pennies on the dollar."
Miser and Shubham discuss demand destruction.
00:40:00 @RazorOil discusses IEA data, and starts a larger discussion of MEG and Q3 earnings.
00:51:00 Meg has hit the debt target to use 50% FCF to buybacks. @DSteinmoeller asks about MEG's SOR.
@AhmedBa44329064 joins. Shubham notes that the power gen is doing great.
01:07:30 A discussion of VET begins. Shubham discusses his issues with this quarter's report. The Australian wells look good. More questions created than answered.
vermilionenergy.com/news/news.cfm?newsReleaseAction=view&releaseId=287
HT: @MC_Mike411 for sharing. Make sure you ask lots of questions of the $VET management team.
Shubham asks if Vermilion is getting ready to make an acquisition? If so, he thinks they should stay in Europe.
1:16:30 @emmpeethree1: Adding the CORRIB acquisition, you get 30% more FCF. "That's huge. ... I wasn't expecting a blowout (Q3). ... It's an unfair situation."
MP says the Q1 '23 report should be a big catalyst.
1:22:00 @BrianjBabbage: Stopping the buybacks is "an incredibly bizarre move." Brian compares $VET's actions to those of ship companies. Analysts must ask better questions, and VET must communicate more effectively.
1:28:30 @AhmedBa44329064 discusses the CORRIB FCF damage done by the tax, and talks about what European leadership is planning. "The pain is going to get worse." "The management were active sellers." Which management teams get it, and which don't?
1:36:00 Shubham talks about companies he dumped because of management missteps. A company that's doing well? CPG. What if Mike Rose ran $VET?
1:49:30 @timber001 joins -- "This is when you buy. These are the good days!"
2:03:00 @emmpeethree1 asks about $OVV and $PEY.
2:11:00 @FX_Button lauds Shubham's oil macro session, and points to production issues in certain areas, including potentially $PIPE land. Shubham thinks it's issues with how they've been drilling.
2:21:00 @Josh_Young_1 joins. Josh is impressed with $SDE results. He notes he didn't like Spartan Delta's land acquisition, so this is something of a reversal. With crypto collapsing, Josh notes 6,600 people are on a crypto space vs. 200+ listening to us!
@RazorOil volatility is our reality.
2:55:00 Razor asks Ahmed where you should hide if fossil fuels isn't it?
High-Energy Wednesday