@jleqc and @RazorOil talk earnings. Free Cash Flow dropped like a rock for many names that have reported with commodity prices and hedges dropping. Razor talks about Athabasca's Q3 report: Record production, RISING FCF.
00:06:30 @jleqc asks a question about management. Razor focuses on assets -- especially assets he understands -- he touches on Cenovus, and discusses $ATH's reduced debt and good assets. J has had success with companies that have low share prices.
00:14:00 Shout-out to @Cole_Smead. Razor compares a McDonald's franchise to #COM stocks. Why owning #COM stocks are a better investment. 00:18:30 Razor talks Tourmaline. 00:22:00 @RealPeterLinder joins and compares $TOU to C 0.00%↑ NQ.
Harking back to @BubleQe, $TOU does a fantastic job of mapping out their expected production and FCF growth. The company's communications to shareholders should be the envy of the rest of the energy space. 00:26:00 Razor talks EIA data.
00:31:00 @JoeB1eattie11 discusses refinery utilization. Listed throughputs include maintenance and other activities, so refineries have the ability to exceed them. Same with pipelines. Joe discusses Lima and Toledo. Love and respect to the folks doing the hard work.
00:39:00 Joe touches on natural-gas egress issues, and notes how capital return is a focus in corporate communications. Will companies that don't do this be punished? $NHC has announced a big buyback. A surprise to many. Surge is increasing its divvy.
Shout-out to @tommacinnis and @HFI_Research. Razor touches on challenges companies face in communicating certain planned actions. Know what you own and who you own. What is the DNA of the management team? You should learn. 00:49:00 CVE's communicates intentions re: buybacks.
00:56:00 Talks management philosophy, touching on $SGY, $CNQ, $TOU, $WCP. @jim_duffus joins -- he discusses dips when companies go ex-dividend and potentially trading in and out of a portion of his portfolio. Razor suggests reading Daniel Kahneman.
"The best group on Twitter, hands down." 1:10:00 Can Duff draw Big Murr and Mike Rose to a Space on Friday? Duff stood still and saw his shares drop. I prepared for FOMC shenanigans by selling some holdings last week. My sold shares soared. Lesson? Can't win 'em all.
1:12:00 @Sheriooz asks about $DVN dropping greatly, starting a conversation about shale. Are American shale firms hiding how gassy they're becoming? @SHOPGod2 discusses a huge downward spike on a most joyful day -- Oileana's birthday! OG talks big picture.
It's early innings. OG thinks 2024 is when #COM stocks really go off. 1:23:00 @AhmedBa44329064 talks Russian production declines, macro and the EIA report. #COM inflation is averaging 30% -- so $40 break-evens are now $52.
1:32:00 Duff talks ancient history -- this time last year. @timber001 wants #COM companies to mirror actions shown by $NHC and $WHC. 1:35:00 @OneMoreif joins and discusses Aussie coal. NEWC coal didn't really experience shoulder season, but names were smashed.
Aussie refers to the Millner family as coal barons. He discusses the philosophy behind investing in NHC vs. WHC -- one has a lot of fixed-price contracts, one is unhedged. 1:41:00 Aussie explains why supply is constrained, but people don't believe it.
Drawing a distinction between $NHC and $WHC -- New Hope's shares are closely held, so you can't buy them. White Haven is canceling shares, which means more FCF/share for those remaining in the name. I am enthusiastic about New Hope's buyback.
Aussie notes the discount NHC trades at and the 100M shares being traded about being sucked up. No one is paying attention! @AhmedBa44329064 refers to a discussion he had with @mfwarder. NEWC expected to retrace 10%. Europe has increased coal demand.
Ahmed discusses the LNG carriers off European shores. In the U.S. there is not enough coal. Matt sees coal mirroring NG futures. Ahmed talks about $CEIX earnings and selling production out to 2027.
40% of S. Korean power comes from coal -- per IEA. 30% for Japan. Does the world know this? The American names, $CEIX and $BTU had some horrible hedging and poor results. 2:13:00 @timber001 and Aussie discuss the NA3 mine coming online.
2:20:00 What's the bear case for coal? Western energy policies are bad. Aussie bets on Asian common sense and higher-for-longer. Ranting against ESG and a certain Fink. 2:34:00 @timber001 talks #COM stock share dilution. $SGY
Razor adds his perspective on dilution from an EMPLOYEE perspective. 2:51:00 @FX_Button joins and discusses $AAV. @WhiteTundraSG joins. 2:55:00 Shubham adds a great deal of color to the SGY deal. Shubham correctly called the market punishing Surge.
It's 25% FCF at $80 oil. What if oil moves from here? "When Paul and his technical team make an acquisition, there's hidden sauce in there they're not going to clarify for you."
3:03:00 @InvestInOnG asks about multizone potential. 3:07:30 @FX_Button can SGY raise capital? Shubham weaves thoughts on U.S. names vs. Canadian names. ... "A journey of success." @Nandospage thanks Shubham for his seven-hour oil opus from the past weekend.
How can we give back? Endow a PEng chair? Shout-out to @sohaibab9 for bringing Shubham to Twitter, and please join the Strategic Mustang Reserve! 3:20:00 @rockcreekfreak talks $DVN and is asked to take an $IPCO victory lap.
Shubham looks at Devon's well productivity. Bottom line: It's not good.
Rock sounds like he has a cold. Hope he's feeling better soon! Should $IPCO wait for a recession so it can deploy its giant wad of cash on the cheap in partnership with a major? Rock touches on ATH royalties.
3:35:00 @DSteinmoeller joins and talks IPCO. @puckdunk talks Suncor and @YellowLabLife joins to discuss the Fort Hills sale and Teck. Koala: "Ridiculously low valuation." Will Total get bent over, aussi? The Koala was surprised Teck took the price it did.
@JoeBeattie11 talks about the writeoffs, saying this gives the new $SU CEO a clean slate. @Sheriooz and @WhiteTundraSG talk more U.S. problems. Shubham: What companies can do to differentiate themselves to knock it out of the park. "The time is now."
High-Energy Wednesday